2015 Tropical Cyclone Research Forum

69th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research:  Setting our Future Course


69th IHC Agenda

69th IHC Booklet/Program

69th IHC Summary Report


DAY 1 - Monday, March 2, 2015



Working Group for Hurricane and Winter Storms Operations and Research (WG/HWSOR) Meeting

Dr. Edward Rappaport (NCEP/NHC)

Chairperson, WG/HWSOR



DAY 2 - Tuesday, March 3, 2015



Opening Session



Forum Opening

·         Welcome

·         Setting the Stage


Mr. David McCarren

Acting Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research


Perspectives from the Florida Division of Emergency Management

·         Ms. Amy Godsey, Chief State Meteorologist, Florida Division of Emergency Management

·         Mr. Steven C. Woodard, Director, Emergency Preparedness Division, Jacksonville Fire and Rescue Department




Session 1:  The 2014 Tropical Cyclone Season in Review


Session Leader

Kathy Winters (Air Force/45th Weather Squadron)


Review of the 2014 Central Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season and Preliminary Verification

Thomas Birchard (NOAA/NWS/CPHC)


A Review of the 2014 Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Cyclone Season

Robert J. Falvey (JTWC)



NOAA Aircraft Operations Center (AOC)

2014 Seasonal Summary and Future Plans


CAPT Harris B. Halverson II and Timothy Gallagher (NOAA/AOC)



53d Weather Reconnaissance Squadron/AFRC 2014 Hurricane Season Summary

Lt Col Jonathan Talbot and 1st Lt Leesa Froelich (53 WRS)


2014 AXBT Demonstration Project: Operations Summary and Research Update

Elizabeth R. Sanabia (U.S. Naval Academy) and

Peter G. Black (NRL/Monterey/SAIC)




Session 2:       Research Priorities of the Operational Centers


Session Leader

Eric W. Uhlhorn (NOAA/AOML/HRD)


Tropical Cyclone Support Challenges and Strengths

Col Rob Swanson (Air Force Weather)


Objective, Automatic Tracking of Pre-Genesis Tropical Disturbances within the Deviation Angle Variance Method for Genesis Prediction


Elizabeth A. Ritchie, Oscar G. Rodríguez-Herrera, Kimberly M. Wood, and J. Scott Tyo (University of Arizona)




Deterministic Tropical Cyclone Genesis in Operational Global Numerical Weather Prediction Models as a Model Assessment Tool

Mike Fiorino (NOAA Earth System Research Lab)



Towards Developing a Guidance Product for Tropical Cyclogenesis Probabilities Using a Comprehensive Historical Dataset of Precipitation and Environmental Properties

Jonathan Zawislak (Florida International University), Brandon Kerns (Univ. of Miami/RSMAS), and Haiyan Jiang (FIU)


Measuring Gaps in Tropical Cyclone Rainbands Using Level II Radar Reflectivity Data

Corene J. Matyas (University of Florida)


Evolution of the USGS Storm Tide Network

Jeanne C. Robbins (USGS-Raleigh, NC), John W. Fulton (USGS-Denver, CO), Ronald Busciolano (USGS-Coram, NY),  and Robert R. Mason, Jr. (USGS-Reston, VA)



Session 3a:     Transitioning Research to Operations (JHT and DTC), Part 1


Session Leaders

Chris Landsea (NOAA/NCEP/NMC) and Shirley Murillo (NOAA/AOML/HRD)


The Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT):  A 2015 Update

Chris Landsea (NOAA/NHC) and Shirley Murillo (NOAA/AOML)



Guidance on Intensity Guidance

Kieran T. Bhatiaa and David S. Nolan (Univ. of Miami/RSMAS) and Andrea Schumacher (CIRA/CSU)




Upgrades to the Operational Monte Carlo Wind Speed Probability Program Principle:  Joint Hurricane Testbed Year 2 Project Update

Andrea Schumacher (CIRA/CSU)



Developing a Tropical Cyclone Genesis Forecast Tool: Preliminary Results from 2014 Quasi-Operational Testing

Daniel Halperin, Robert Hart, and Henry Fuelberg (Florida St. Univ.) and Joshua Cossuth (NRL)


The ARCHER Automated TC Center-Fixing Algorithm: Updates on Real-Time Operations, Accuracy, and Capabilities

Anthony (Tony) Wimmers and Christopher Velden (Univ. of Wisconsin/CIMSS)


StormSurgeViz: A Visualization and Analysis Application for Coastal Storm Surge, Inundation, and Wave Modeling

Brian Blanton (Renaissance Computing Institute) and Rick Luettich (Univ. of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)



Improvement to the Satellite-based 37 GHz Ring Rapid Intensification Index: A Year 2 Update

Haiyan Jiang, Yongxian Pei, Margie Kieper, and Joseph Zagrodnik (Florida International Univ.)



Session 3b:     Transitioning Research to Operations (JHT and DTC), Part 2


              Session Leaders

Chris Landsea (NOAA/NCEP/NMC) and Shirley Murillo (NOAA/AOML/HRD)


Upgrades to the GFDL/GFDN Operational Hurricane Models Planned for 2015 (A JHT-Funded Project)

Morris A. Bender, Matthew Morin,  and Timothy P. Marchok (NOAA/GFDL); Isaac Ginis and Biju Thomas (University of Rhode Island); and

Robert E. Tuleya (Old Dominion University)



Improving the Ocean Component of the Operational HWRF and GFDN/GFDN Hurricane Models

Isaac Ginis and Biju Thomas (University of Rhode Island), Morris Bender (NOAA/GFDL), Vijay Tallapragada (NOAA/NCEP/EMC)



Demonstration Testbed for the Evaluation of Experimental Models for Tropical Cyclone Forecasting in Support of the NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP)

Paul A. Kucera, Christopher L. Williams, Barbara G. Brown, and Louisa Nance (NCAR/Research Applications Laboratory)





Testing Hurricane WRF with Alternate Radiation and Partial Cloudiness Schemes

Christina R. Holt (NOAA/GSD, CIRES/CU, and DTC), Greg Thompson (NCAR), Ligia Bernardet  (NOAA/GSD, CIRES/CU, and DTC), Mrinal Biswas (NCAR), and Craig Hartsough (NOAA/ GSD, CIRES/CU, and DTC)





1-Minute Poster Previews coordinated by Elizabeth A. Ritchie (Univ. of Arizona)


Posters for the 2015 Tropical Cyclone Research Forum

Poster Session: Tuesday, March 3, 2015



Upper Ocean Observations in Hurricane Edouard

Eric W. Uhlhorn (NOAA/AOML/HRD), Benjamin Jaimes (UM/RSMAS), Joseph J. Cione (NOAA/ AOML/HRD) and Lynn K. (Nick) Shay (UM/RSMAS)



Observations and Modeling of Saharan Dust Interaction with a

Tropical Cyclone

Scott A. Braun, J. J. Shi, and W. K. Tao (NASA/GSFC)



An Update on Techniques Using the Deviation Angle Variance (DAV) for Tropical Cyclone Intensity, Genesis, and Surface Wind Field Estimation


J. Scott Tyo, Oscar G. Rodríguez-Herrera, Kim M. Wood, Klaus P. Dolling, and Elizabeth A. Ritchie

(University of Arizona)



Support for Users and Developers of the Hurricane WRF Model

Ligia Bernardet (NOAA  GSD, CIRES/CU, and DTC), Vijay Tallapragada (NOAA/NCEP/ EMC),

Mrinal Biswas (NCAR), Christina Holt (NOAA  GSD, CIRES/CU, and DTC), Samuel Trahan (NOAA/NCEP/ EMC and IMSG), and Laurie Carson (NCAR)




Evolution of the Upper-Level Outflow During Hurricanes Iselle and Julio (2014) in the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM) Analyses

Sara C. Reynolds, Bradford S. Barrett, and Elizabeth R. Sanabia (U.S. Naval Academy)



Observations of the Upper-Level Outflow During Hurricanes Iselle and Julio (2014)


Julie K. Stapleton, Anthony L. Borrego, Bradford S. Barrett, and Elizabeth R. Sanabia (U.S. Naval Academy)



The Effect of Landfall or Coastal Interaction on the Performance of Navy Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecasts

Carey Dickerman and Raymond C. Lee (Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center)



Impact of CYGNSS Data on Hurricane Analyses and Forecasts

in a Regional OSSE Framework

Brian McNoldy, Bachir Annane, Javier Delgado, Lisa Bucci, Robert Atlas, and Sharanya Majumdar

(University of Miami/RSMAS)




Wind Speed Retrievals with GPU Accelerated Matched Filter

Eddie Massey III (Claflin University)



On the Continued Need for Public-Private Partnerships

in the Observation of Land-falling Tropical Cyclones


Marty Bell (WeatherFlow, Inc.)



Kuroshio Extension Observatory (KEO) Measurements of the Upper-Ocean Response to Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific


Nicholas A. Bond (University of Washington), Meghan F. Cronin and Hyun-Sook Kim (NOAA)



GOES-R is Coming - Are You Ready!

Steven J. Goodman (NOAA/NESDIS)



CINAR Tempests: A Rapid Response Program for Oceanographic Measurements during East Coast Hurricane Passage


Glen Gawarkiewicz (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution) and CINAR Tempests Team (from WHOI, Rutgers U., U. Maine, U. Maryland, Gulf of Maine Research Institute)





                        DAY 3 - Wednesday, March 4, 2015


Session 4a:     Observations and Observing Strategies, Part 1


Session Leaders

Scott A. Braun (NASA/GSFC) and Chris Velden (Univ. of Wisconsin/CIMSS)



NOAA’s Intensity Forecast Experiment (IFEX): Progress and Plans for 2015

 Robert Rogers (NOAA/AOML/HRD)



Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3): Results from the 2014 Deployment

Scott A. Braun  and Paul A. Newman (NASA/GSFC)



Improved SFMR Surface Winds and Rain Rates

Eric W. Uhlhorn (NOAA/AOML/HRD) and

Bradley W. Klotz (UM/RSMAS/CIMAS and HRD)


HIWRAP Global Hawk Status and Future Plans

Gerald Heymsfield and M. Mclinden (NASA/GSFC), S. Guimond (U. Md ESSIC), and

A. Didlake (ORAU)



Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD)

Daniel J. Cecil (NASA/MSFC), Sayak K. Biswas (USRA), and W. Linwood Jones  (Univ. of Central Florida)


The Unique Capability of the Scatterometer in Measuring Stress in Tropical Cyclones


W. Timothy Liu, Wenqing Tang, and Xiaosu Xie (NASA/Jet Propulsion Laboratory)



Session 4b:     Observations and Observing Strategies, Part 2


  Session Leaders

Scott A. Braun (NASA/GSFC) and Chris Velden (Univ. of Wisconsin/CIMSS)


Proof of Concept for Atmospheric Profiling with the High Definition Sounding System (HDSS)

Peter Black (SAIC/NRL/Monterey), James Doyle, Jon Moskaitis, Eric Hendricks, Lee Harrison, Mark Beaubien, and Will Jeffries (NRL/Monterey)


Airborne Phased Array Radar (APAR): The Next Generation of Airborne Polarimetric Doppler Weather Radar

James A. Moore and Wen-chau Lee (NCAR/

Earth Observing Facility)


Near-Real Time Ocean Surface Vector Winds from RapidScat

Paul S. Chang, Zorana Jelenak, and Seubson Soisuvarn (NOAA/NESDIS/STAR) and Faozi Said (Global Science and Technology, Inc.)


Coastal Ocean Current and Wave Response to Hurricane Jeanne Using High Frequency Radar Measurements: Implications for Surge Modeling

Lynn K. Shay, Jorge Martinez and Matthew Archer

(Univ. of Miami/RSMAS/MPO)


Air-Deployable Profiling Floats

Steven R. Jayne, W. Brechner Owens, and P. E. Robbins (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution); Jim Dufour (MRV Systems LLC); and Elizabeth R. Sanabia (U.S. Naval Academy)


A Review of the 2014 Gulf of Mexico Wave Glider® Field Program

Patrick J. Fitzpatrick, Yee Lau, Robert Moorhead, and Adam Skarke (Mississippi State University);

Daniel Merritt, Keith Kreider, Chris Brown, Ryan Carlon, Graham Hine, and Teri Lampoudi (Liquid Robotics, Inc.); and Alan Leonardi (NOAA/OAR/ Ocean Exploration and Research)


The NASA CYGNSS Satellite Constellation: Probing the Inner Core of Hurricanes

Christopher Ruf, Aaron Ridley, and Derek Posselt (Univ. of Mich.); Scott Gleason and Randall Rose (Southwest Research Institute, Boulder, CO); and John Scherrer (Southwest Research Institute, San Antonio, TX)


Forum Luncheon

Luncheon Talks:     

·         Mr. Frederick Toepfer (NOAA/NWS/OST)

o    The Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP): Progress and Accomplishments

·         Dr. Ronald J. Ferek (Navy/ONR)

o    Understanding and Predicting the Impact of Outflow on Tropical Cyclone Intensification and Structure



Presentation of the 2015 Richard H. Hagemeyer Award to Edward M. Fukada, Technical Advisor, Joint Typhoon Warning Center


Mr. John Pavone--2014

Dr. Jim McFadden--2013
Mr. Jeff Hawkins--2012
Dr. Peter G. Black -- 2011

Dr. Jim Goerss --2010

Dr. Mark DeMaria --2009

Mr. Robert Dumont--2008

Mr. Charles J. “Charlie” Neumann--2007

Dr. Joanne Simpson--2006

Dr. Frank D. Marks, Jr.--2005

Mr. Max Mayfield--2004

Mr. Chris Velden--2003

Prof. Russell Elsberry--2002 




Session 5a:  Advances in Tropical Cyclone Model Development and Evaluation, Part 1


Session Leaders

James D. Doyle (NRL/Monterey) and  Vijay Tallapragada (NOAA/NCEP/EMC)


Advanced Operational Global Tropical Cyclone Forecasts from NOAA's High-Resolution HWRF Modeling System


Vijay Tallapragada (NOAA/NCEP/EMC)


The Basin-Scale HWRF System: Verification and Analysis

Sundararaman G. Gopalakrishnan (NOAA/AOML/HRD), Gus Alaka and Xuejin Zhang (UM/CIMAS and NOAA/AOML), Thiago Quirino (NOAA/AOML/HRD), Vijay Tallapragada (NOAA/NCEP/EMC), and Frank Marks Jr. (NOAA/AOML/HRD)


Hurricane Forecasts with Regional NMMB: Impact of HWRF Physics

Weiguo Wang, Vijay Tallapragada, and HWRF Team (NOAA/NCEP/EMC)


Identifying and Understanding Ocean Model Impacts on Coupled HWRF Forecasts


Hyun-Sook Kim (NOAA/NCEP/EMC) and George Halliwell (NOAA/AOML)



Direct Assimilation of Satellite-Derived AMVs into HWRF: First Results

William Lewis and Christopher Velden (University

of Wisconsin/CIMSS) and Vijay Tallapragada and

Jaime Daniels (NOAA/NCEP/EMC)


Proposed 2015 NCEP HWRF Hurricane Forecasting Model

Samuel Trahan, Zhan Zhang, Qingfu Liu, Weiguo Wang, Mingjing Tong, Banglin Zhang, Lin Zhu, Keqin Wu, and Vijay Tallapragada (NOAA/NCEP/EMC)



Session 5b:    Advances in Tropical Cyclone Model Development and Evaluation, Part 2


Session Leaders

James D. Doyle (NRL/Monterey) and  Vijay Tallapragada (NOAA/NCEP/EMC)


Recent COAMPS-TC Development and Future Plans

James D. Doyle (NRL/Monterey), R. Hodur (SAIC), J. Moskaitis, S. Chen, E. Hendricks, H. Jin, Y. Jin, A. Reinecke, and S. Wang (NRL/Monterey)


Real-Time Probabilistic TC Prediction with Regional Dynamical Models: The COAMPS-TC Ensemble and the Combined COAMPS-TC/HWRF/GFDL Multi-Model Ensemble

J. R. Moskaitis, P. A. Reinecke, and J. Doyle



Sensitivity of Ocean Sampling for Coupled COAMPS-TC Prediction

Sue Chen (NRL/Monterey), James Cummings (SAIC), Jerome Schmidt (NRL/Monterey), Peter Black (SAIC), Elizabeth Sanabia (U.S. Naval Academy, and L. K. (Nick) Shay (UM/RSMAS)


Further Exploring the Potential for Assimilation of Unmanned Aircraft Observations to Benefit Hurricane Analyses and Forecasts

Jason A. Sippel (IM Systems Group and NOAA/EMC), Fuqing Zhang and Yonghui Weng (Penn St. Univ.), Scott A. Braun (NASA/GSFC),

and Daniel J. Cecil (NASA/MSFC)


NOAA’s Use of the Coyote UAS in Hurricane Edouard to Enhance Basic Understanding and Improve Model Physics

Joseph J. Cione (NOAA/AOML/HRD at the Earth System Research Laboratory), Kristie Twining

NOAA/OAMO), Drew Osbrink and Eric Redweik

(Sensintel Corporation), Jim Etro and Dave Downer

(ItriCorp), Evan Kalina (University of Colorado),

Ligia Bernardet (NOAA/DTC), and Tony Brescia

(Naval Air Systems Command)




Evaluating Models and Understanding Hurricane Processes with the use of the JPL Tropical Cyclone Information System

Svetla M. Hristova-Veleva (NASA/JPL); M. Boothe (NPS-Monterey); S. Gopalakrishnan (NOAA/ AOML/HRD); Z. Haddad, M. P. Johnson, B. Knosp, B. Lambrigtsen, and P. P. Li (NASA/JPL); M. Montgomery (NPS/Monterey); N. Niamsuwan, W. L. Poulsen, and  T.P. Shen (NASA/JPL); V. Tallapragada (NOAA/NCEP/EMC); S. Tanelli (NASA/JPL); S. Trahan (NOAA/NCEP/EMC); and F. J. Turk  and Q. Vu (NASA/JPL)




DAY 4 - Thursday, March 5, 2015



Session 6:       The Future of the IHC—Agency Perspectives


Session Moderator

 Mr. David McCarren (OFCM)


 Open Discussion                                                         




Session 7:       Products, Services, and Societal Impact


Session Leader

CDR Elizabeth Sanabia (Navy/U.S. Naval Academy)


A Global Investigation of the Impacts of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones on Societies

Denise Balukas, Elizabeth A. Ritchie, and Kim M. Wood  (University of Arizona)



The 2014 Satellite Proving Ground at the National Hurricane Center

Mark DeMaria, Jack Beven, Michael Brennan, Hugh Cobb, and Nelsie Ramos (NOAA/NCEP/NHC);

Andrea Schumacher (CIRA/CSU); and Michael Folmer (Univ. of Maryland/CICS)


NRL Tropical Cyclone Satellite Web Resource

Jeff Hawkins, Kim Richardson, Rich Bankert, Mindy Surratt, Song Yang, and Jeremy Solbrig (NRL/ Monterey), Josh Cossuth (NRC/Monterey), Charles Sampson (NRL/Monterey), John Kent (SAIC), and Arunas Kuciauskas (NRL/Monterey)


A Completed Hurricane Surge Visualization Model and Ongoing Efforts to Use the Model to Assess Public Understanding of Risks due to Storm Surge

B. Lee Lindner, Stephen Duke, and Janet Johnson (College of Charleston) and Frank Alsheimer (NOAA/NWS/Charleston)



Session 8:       Tropical Cyclone Research Plan Mid-Course Assessment—Operational Needs and Research Priorities


Panel Moderator



Panelists:   NHC:  Dr. Richard Knabb

                  CPHC: Mr. Thomas Birchard

                  JTWC: Mr. Robert J. Falvey

                  Dr. Frank Marks, Jr., WG/TCR Co-Chair and Director, Hurricane Research Division (NOAA/AOML)

                  Dr. Ronald J. Ferek, WG/TCR Co-Chair and Program Officer, Marine Meteorology Program (ONR)



Final Plenary Session


Session Leader

Daniel Melendez (NWS/OST)


WG/HWSOR: Action Item Review

Dr. Edward Rappaport (NCEP/NHC)

Chairperson, WG/HWSOR


Forum Wrap-Up

Mr. David McCarren

Acting Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research