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Theme: Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research: Setting our Future Course
69th IHC Agenda
69th IHC Booklet/Program
69th IHC Summary Report
DAY 1 - Monday, March 2, 2015
Working Group for Hurricane and Winter
Storms Operations and Research (WG/HWSOR) Meeting
Dr. Edward Rappaport (NCEP/NHC), Chairperson, WG/HWSOR
DAY 2 - Tuesday, March 3, 2015
Opening Session
Forum Opening
Welcome and Setting the Stage
Mr. David McCarren, Acting Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research
Perspectives from the Florida Division of Emergency Management
Session 1: 2014 Tropical Cyclone Season in Review
Session Leader: Kathy Winters, Air Force/45th Weather Squadron
Session 2: Research Priorities of the Operational Centers
Session Leader: Eric W. Uhlhorn, (NOAA/AOML/HRD)
- Tropical Cyclone Support Challenges and Strengths Col Rob Swanson ,(Air Force Weather)
- (S2-02): Objective, Automatic Tracking of Pre-Genesis Tropical Disturbances within the Deviation Angle Variance Method for Genesis Prediction Elizabeth A. Ritchie Oscar G. Rodríguez-Herrera, Kimberly M. Wood, and J. Scott Tyo (University of Arizona)
- (S2-03): Deterministic Tropical Cyclone Genesis in Operational Global Numerical Weather Prediction Models as a Model Assessment Tool Mike Fiorino NOAA Earth System Research Lab)
- (S2-04): Towards Developing a Guidance Product for Tropical Cyclogenesis
Probabilities Using a Comprehensive Historical Dataset of Precipitation and Environmental Properties Jonathan Zawislak (Florida International University), Brandon Kerns (Univ. of Miami/RSMAS), and Haiyan Jiang (FIU)
- (S2-05): Measuring Gaps in Tropical Cyclone Rainbands Using Level II
Radar Reflectivity Data Corene J. Matyas (University of Florida)
- (S2-06) Evolution of the USGS Storm Tide Network
Jeanne C. Robbins (USGS-Raleigh, NC), John W. Fulton (USGS-Denver, CO), Ronald Busciolano (USGS-Coram, NY), and Robert R. Mason, Jr. (USGS-Reston, VA)
Session 3a: Transitioning Research to Operations (JHT and DTC), Part 1
Session Leaders: Chris Landsea (NOAA/NCEP/NMC) and Shirley Murillo (NOAA/AOML/HRD)
Session 3b: Transitioning Research to Operations (JHT and DTC), Part 2
Session Leaders: Chris Landsea (NOAA/NCEP/NMC) and Shirley Murillo (NOAA/AOML/HRD)
- (S3b-01) Upgrades to the GFDL/GFDN Operational Hurricane Models Planned for 2015 (A JHT-Funded Project) Morris A. Bender, Matthew Morin, and Timothy P. Marchok (NOAA/GFDL); Isaac Ginis and Biju Thomas (University of Rhode Island); and Robert E. Tuleya (Old Dominion University)
- (S3b-02) Improving the Ocean Component of the Operational HWRF and GFDN/GFDN Hurricane Models Isaac Ginis, Biju Thomas (University of Rhode Island), Morris Bender (NOAA/GFDL), Vijay Tallapragada (NOAA/NCEP/EMC)
- (S3b-03) Demonstration Testbed for the Evaluation of Experimental Models
for Tropical Cyclone Forecasting in Support of the NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) Paul A. Kucera, Christopher L. Williams, Barbara G. Brown, and Louisa Nance (NCAR/Research Applications Laboratory)
- (S3b-04) Testing Hurricane WRF with Alternate Radiation and Partial Cloudiness SchemesChristina R. Holt (NOAA/GSD, CIRES/CU, and DTC), Greg Thompson (NCAR), Ligia Bernardet (NOAA/GSD, CIRES/CU, and DTC), Mrinal Biswas
(NCAR), and Craig Hartsough (NOAA/ GSD, CIRES/CU, and DTC)
1-Minute Poster Previews coordinated by Elizabeth A. Ritchie (Univ. of Arizona)
Posters for the 2015 Tropical Cyclone Research Forum, Tuesday, March 3, 2015
- P01: Upper Ocean Observations in Hurricane Edouard Eric W. Uhlhorn (NOAA/AOML/HRD), Benjamin Jaimes (UM/RSMAS), Joseph J. Cione (NOAA/AOML/HRD) and Lynn K. (Nick) Shay (UM/RSMAS)
- P02 (Poster): Observations and Modeling of Saharan Dust Interaction with a Tropical
Cyclone Scott A. Braun, J. J. Shi, and W. K. Tao (NASA/GSFC)
- P03: An Update on Techniques Using the Deviation Angle Variance (DAV) for Tropical
Cyclone Intensity, Genesis, and Surface Wind Field Estimation J. Scott Tyo, Oscar G. Rodríguez-Herrera, Kim M. Wood, Klaus
P. Dolling, and Elizabeth A. Ritchie (University of Arizona)
- P04: Support for Users and Developers of the Hurricane WRF Model Ligia Bernardet GSD, CIRES/CU, and DTC), Vijay Tallapragada (NOAA/NCEP/ EMC), Mrinal Biswas (NCAR), Christina Holt (NOAA/GSD, CIRES/CU, and DTC), Samuel Trahan (NOAA/NCEP/EMC and IMSG), and Laurie Carson (NCAR)
- P05: Evolution of the Upper-Level Outflow During Hurricanes Iselle and Julio (2014) in the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM) Analyses Sara C. Reynolds, Bradford S. Barrett, and Elizabeth R. Sanabia (U.S. Naval
Academy)
- P06: Observations of the Upper-Level Outflow During Hurricanes Iselle
and Julio (2014) Julie K. Stapleton, Anthony L. Borrego, Bradford S. Barrett, and Elizabeth R. Sanabia (U.S. Naval Academy)
- P07: (Poster)
The Effect of Landfall or Coastal Interaction on the Performance of Navy Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecasts Carey Dickerman and
Raymond C. Lee (Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center)
- P08: (Poster)
Impact of CYGNSS Data on Hurricane Analyses and Forecasts in a Regional OSSE Framework Brian McNoldy, Bachir Annane, Javier Delgado, Lisa Bucci, Robert Atlas, and Sharanya Majumdar University of Miami/RSMAS)
- P09: Wind Speed Retrievals with GPU Accelerated Matched Filter Eddie Massey III (Claflin University)
- P10: On the Continued Need for Public-Private Partnerships in the Observation of Land-falling Tropical Cyclones Marty Bell (WeatherFlow, Inc.)
- P11: Kuroshio Extension Observatory (KEO) Measurements of the Upper-Ocean Response to
Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific Nicholas A. Bond (University of Washington), Meghan F. Cronin and Hyun-Sook Kim (NOAA)
- P12 (Poster ) GOES-R is Coming - Are You Ready! Steven J. Goodman (NOAA/NESDIS)
- P13 CINAR Tempests: A Rapid Response Program for Oceanographic Measurements during East Coast Hurricane Passage Glen Gawarkiewicz (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution) and CINAR Tempests Team (from WHOI, Rutgers U., U. Maine, U. Maryland, Gulf of Maine Research Institute)
DAY 3 - Wednesday, March 4, 2015
Session 4a: Observations and Observing Strategies, Part 1
Session Leaders: Scott A. Braun (NASA/GSFC) and Chris Velden (Univ. of Wisconsin/CIMSS)
Session 4b: Observations and Observing Strategies, Part 2
Session Leaders: Scott A. Braun (NASA/GSFC) and Chris Velden (Univ. of Wisconsin/CIMSS)
- (S4b-01) Proof of Concept for Atmospheric Profiling with
the High Definition Sounding System (HDSS) Peter Black (SAIC/NRL/Monterey), James Doyle, Jon Moskaitis, Eric Hendricks, Lee Harrison, Mark Beaubien, and Will Jeffries (NRL/Monterey)
- (S4b-02): Airborne Phased Array Radar(APAR): The Next
Generation of Airborne Polarimetric Doppler Weather Radar James A. Moore and Wen- chau Lee (NCAR/Earth Observing Facility)
- (S4b-03) Near-Real Time Ocean Surface Vector Winds from RapidScat Paul S. Chang, Zorana Jelenak, and Seubson Soisuvarn (NOAA/NESDIS/STAR) and Faozi Said (Global Science and Technology, Inc.)
- (S4b-04) Coastal Ocean Current and Wave Response to Hurricane Jeanne Using High Frequency Radar Measurements: Implications for Surge Modeling Lynn K. Shay, Jorge
Martinez and Matthew Archer (Univ. of Miami/RSMAS/MPO)
- (S4b-05) Air-Deployable Profiling Floats Steven R. Jayne, W. Brechner Owens, and P. E. Robbins (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution); Jim Dufour (MRV Systems LLC); and Elizabeth R. Sanabia (U.S. Naval Academy)
- (S4b-06) A Review of the 2014 Gulf of Mexico Wave Glider® Field Program
Patrick J. Fitzpatrick, Yee Lau, Robert Moorhead, and Adam Skarke (Mississippi State University); Daniel Merritt, Keith Kreider, Chris Brown, Ryan Carlon, Graham Hine, and Teri Lampoudi (Liquid Robotics, Inc.); and Alan Leonardi (NOAA/OAR/ Ocean Exploration and Research)
- (S4b-07) The NASA CYGNSS Satellite Constellation: Probing the Inner Core of Hurricanes Christopher Ruf, Aaron Ridley, and Derek Posselt (Univ. of Mich.); Scott Gleason and Randall Rose (Southwest Research Institute, Boulder, CO); and John Scherrer (Southwest Research Institute, San Antonio, TX)
Forum Luncheon
Luncheon Talks:
Mr. Frederick Toepfer (NOAA/NWS/OST)
The Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP): Progress and Accomplishments
Dr. Ronald J. Ferek (Navy/ONR)
Understanding and Predicting the Impact of Outflow on Tropical Cyclone Intensification and Structure
Presentation of the 2015 Richard H. Hagemeyer Award to Edward M. Fukada, Technical Advisor, Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Mr. John Pavone--2014
Dr. Jim McFadden--2013
Mr. Jeff Hawkins--2012
Dr. Peter G. Black -- 2011
Dr. Jim Goerss --2010
Dr. Mark DeMaria --2009
Mr. Robert Dumont--2008
Mr. Charles J. “Charlie” Neumann--2007
Dr. Joanne Simpson--2006
Dr. Frank D. Marks, Jr.--2005
Mr. Max Mayfield--2004
Mr. Chris Velden--2003
Prof. Russell Elsberry--2002
Session 5a: Advances in Tropical Cyclone Model Development and Evaluation, Part 1
Session Leaders: James D. Doyle (NRL/Monterey) and Vijay Tallapragada (NOAA/NCEP/EMC)
- (S5a-01) Advanced Operational Global Tropical Cyclone Forecasts from NOAA's High-Resolution HWRF Modeling System Vijay Tallapragada(NOAA/NCEP/EMC)
- (S5a-02) The Basin-Scale HWRF System: Verification and Analysis Sundararaman G. Gopalakrishnan (NOAA/AOML/HRD), Gus Alaka and Xuejin Zhang (UM/CIMAS and NOAA/AOML), Thiago Quirino (NOAA/AOML/HRD), Vijay Tallapragada (NOAA/NCEP/EMC), and Frank Marks Jr. (NOAA/AOML/HRD)
- (S5a-03) Hurricane Forecasts with Regional NMMB: Impact of HWRF Physics Weiguo Wang, Vijay Tallapragada, and HWRF Team (NOAA/NCEP/EMC)
- (S5a-04) Identifying and Understanding Ocean Model Impacts on Coupled HWRF Forecasts Hyun-Sook Kim (NOAA/NCEP/EMC) and George Halliwell (NOAA/AOML)
- (S5a-05) Direct Assimilation of Satellite-Derived AMVs into HWRF: First Results William Lewis and Christopher Velden (University of Wisconsin/CIMSS); and Vijay Tallapragada and Jaime Daniels (NOAA/NCEP/EMC)
- (S5a-06) Proposed 2015 NCEP HWRF Hurricane Forecasting Model Samuel Trahan, Zhan Zhang, Qingfu Liu, Weiguo Wang, Mingjing Tong, Banglin Zhang, Lin Zhu, Keqin Wu, and Vijay Tallapragada (NOAA/NCEP/EMC)
Session 5b: Advances in Tropical Cyclone Model Development and Evaluation, Part 2
Session Leaders: James D. Doyle (NRL/Monterey) and Vijay Tallapragada (NOAA/NCEP/EMC)
- (S5b-01) Recent COAMPS-TC Development and Future Plans James D. Doyle(NRL/Monterey), R. Hodur (SAIC), J. Moskaitis, S. Chen, E. Hendricks, H. Jin, Y. Jin, A. Reinecke, and S. Wang (NRL/Monterey)
- (S5b-02) Real-Time Probabilistic TC Prediction with Regional Dynamical Models: The COAMPS-TC Ensemble and the Combined COAMPS-TC/HWRF/GFDL Multi-Model Ensemble J. R. Moskaitis, P. A. Reinecke,
and J. Doyle (NRL-Monterey)
- (S5b-03) Sensitivity of Ocean Sampling for Coupled COAMPS-TC Prediction Sue Chen (NRL/Monterey), James Cummings (SAIC), Jerome Schmidt (NRL/Monterey), Peter Black (SAIC), Elizabeth Sanabia (U.S. Naval Academy, and L. K. (Nick) Shay (UM/RSMAS)
- (S5b-04) Further Exploring the Potential for Assimilation of Unmanned Aircraft Observations to Benefit Hurricane Analyses and Forecasts Jason A. Sippel (IM Systems Group and NOAA/EMC), Fuqing Zhang and Yonghui Weng (Penn St. Univ.), Scott A. Braun (NASA/GSFC), and Daniel J. Cecil (NASA/MSFC)
- (S5b-05) NOAA’s Use of the Coyote UAS in Hurricane Edouard to Enhance Basic Understanding and Improve Model Physics Joseph J. Cione (NOAA/AOML/HRD at the Earth System Research Laboratory), Kristie Twining, Drew Osbrink and Eric Redweik (Sensintel Corporation), Jim Etro and Dave Downer (ItriCorp), Evan Kalina (University of Colorado), Ligia Bernardet (NOAA/DTC), and Tony Brescia (Naval Air Systems Command)
- (S5b-06) Evaluating Models and Understanding Hurricane Processes with the use of the JPL Tropical Cyclone Information System Svetla M. Hristova-Veleva (NASA/JPL); M. Boothe (NPS-Monterey); S. Gopalakrishnan (NOAA/ AOML/HRD); Z. Haddad, M. P. Johnson, B. Knosp, B. Lambrigtsen, and P. P. Li (NASA/JPL); M. Montgomery (NPS/Monterey); N. Niamsuwan, W. L. Poulsen, and T.P. Shen (NASA/JPL); V. Tallapragada (NOAA/NCEP/EMC); S. Tanelli (NASA/JPL); S. Trahan (NOAA/NCEP/EMC); and F. J. Turk and Q. Vu (NASA/JPL)
DAY 4 - Thursday, March 5, 2015
Session 6: The Future of the IHC—Agency Perspectives
Session Moderator: Mr. David McCarren (OFCM)
Open Discussion
Session 7: Products, Services, and Societal Impact
Session Leader: CDR Elizabeth Sanabia (Navy/U.S. Naval Academy)
- (S7-01) A Global Investigation of the Impacts of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones on Societies Denise Balukas, Elizabeth A. Ritchie, and Kim M. Wood (University of Arizona)
- (S7-02) The 2014 Satellite Proving Ground at the National
Hurricane Center Mark DeMaria, Jack Beven, Michael Brennan, Hugh Cobb, and Nelsie Ramos (NOAA/NCEP/NHC); Andrea Schumacher (CIRA/CSU); and Michael Folmer (Univ. of Maryland/CICS)
- (S7-03) NRL Tropical Cyclone Satellite Web Resource Jeff
Hawkins, Kim Richardson, Rich Bankert, Mindy Surratt, Song Yang, and Jeremy Solbrig (NRL/ Monterey), Josh Cossuth (NRC/Monterey), Charles Sampson (NRL/Monterey), John Kent (SAIC), and Arunas Kuciauskas (NRL/Monterey)
- (S7-04) A Completed Hurricane Surge Visualization Model and Ongoing Efforts to Use the Model to Assess Public Understanding of Risks due to Storm Surge B. Lee Lindner, Stephen Duke, and Janet Johnson (College of Charleston) and Frank Alsheimer (NOAA/NWS/Charleston)
Session 8: Tropical Cyclone Research Plan Mid-Course Assessment—Operational Needs and Research Priorities
Panel Moderator: Mr. David McCarren (OFCM)
Panelists:
Final Plenary Session
Session Leader: Daniel Melendez (NWS/OST)