67th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference Tropical Cyclone Research Forum
Theme - Tropical Cyclone Research: Our Vision for the Future |
March 5th – 7th 2013 NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction College Park, MD (And as a Webinar) |
Opening Session
Mr. Samuel P. Williamson Federal Coordinator for Meteorology |
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Keynote Address |
Congressman Chaka Fattah, Ranking Member of the Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice, Science and related agencies (CJS) |
Dr. Louis Uccellini, Director, National Weather Service |
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Invited Comments |
Acting Secretary of Commerce Dr. Rebecca Blank (invited) |
Setting the Stage for the Forum |
Mr. Samuel P. Williamson Federal Coordinator for Meteorology |
Panel Session: The Emergency Response to Hurricane Sandy Moderator: Mr. Bryan Norcross, The Weather Channel Hurricane Specialist Panelists: - Captain Thomas Scardino, Executive Officer, Emergency Management Section, New Jersey Homeland Security Branch - Mr. Richard A. French, New York State Office of Emergency Management
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Session 1: Tropical Cyclone Research: Federal Agency Overview | |
Introduction of Panel Moderator |
Dr. Paul D. Try, Senior Vice President Science and Technology Corporation |
Senior Leader Panel: Tropical Cyclone Research: The View from the Top Moderator: John D. Murphy, Director, Office of Science and Technology, National Weather Service Panelists: - Dr. Ronald Ferek, Program Officer, Marine Meteorology Program, Office of Naval Research - Dr. Frank Marks, Jr., Director, NOAA's Hurricane Research Division - Dr. Alexander E. (Sandy) MacDonald, Director of NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory and Deputy Assistant Administrator for Research Laboratories and Cooperative Institutes - Dr. Michael C. Morgan, Division Director of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences, National Science Foundation |
Session 2: Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research | |
Session Leaders Dr. Frank Marks, Co-Chair WG/TCR and Director Hurricane Research Division (NOAA/AOML) Dr. Ronald Ferek, Co-Chair WG/TCR and Program Officer Marine Meteorology Program (ONR) |
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Comparison of the 2010 and 2012 Snapshots of Tropical Cyclone Research and Development
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Frank Marks (AOML/HRD) and Ronald Ferek (ONR) |
Session 3a: The Navy's Model Development and Improvement Program/Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP): Supporting Talks | |
Session Leaders Dr. Ron Ferek and Dr. Frank Marks |
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The Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project: Recent Operational Implementation |
Bob Gall (NWS), Fred Toepfer (NWS), Frank Marks (AOML/HRD), and Ed Rappaport (NHC) |
James D. Doyle (NRL/Monterey), R. Hodur (SAIC), S. Chen, E. Hendricks, T. Holt, H. Jin, Y. Jin, J. Moskaitis, M. Peng, A. Reinecke, K. Sashegyi, J. Schmidt, and S. Wang (NRL/Monterey) |
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Scott A. Braun and Paul A. Newman (NASA/GSFC) |
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Chris Velden (CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin) and Sharan Majumdar (RSMAS/Univ. of Miami) |
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The Basin-Scale HWRF: Looking Beyond the 10-M Wind Speed for Improved Storm Predictions |
Sundararaman G.Gopalakrishnan (AOML/HRD) , Vijay Tallapragada (NCEP/EMC), Xuejin Zhang (CIMAS), Frank Marks, Jr., and Robert Atlas (AOML/HRD) |
Session 3b: Earth System Predication Capability (ESPC)/Next-Generation Suite of Models: Supporting Talks | |
Session Leader Dr. Alexander E. (Sandy) MacDonald (OAR/ERSL) |
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Dan Eleuterio (ONR) and Jessie C.Carman (NOAA/OAR) |
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Next Generation Operational Global Model Development at NCEP |
Bill Lapenta and John Derber (NWS/NCEP) |
Stan Benjamin and Jin Luen Lee (NOAA/ERSL) |
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Shian-Jiann Lin ( NOAA/GFDL) |
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Next-Generation Global Weather Prediction Research in the U.S. Navy |
James D. Doyle (NRL/Monterey), Frank Giraldo (NPS) and Sasa Gabersek (NRL/Monterey) |
Next-Generation Global Weather Prediction Research at NASA GMAO |
Bill Putman and Michele Rienecker (NASA) |
Session 3c: NSF Program Initiatives : Supporting Talks | |
Session Leader Dr. Michael C. Morgan (NSF) |
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Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change Using Ensembles |
Gregory J. Hakim (University of Washington) |
The Relative Contribution of Atmospheric and Oceanic Uncertainty in TC Intensity Forecasts |
Ryan Torn (University at Albany-SUNY), Chris Davis and Chris Snyder (NCAR) |
Probabilistic Verification of Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclogenesis |
Sharan Majumdar (RSMAS/University of Miami) and Ryan Torn (University at Albany, SUNY) |
The Impact of Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation on the Predictability of Landfalling Hurricanes |
Zhaoxia Pu and Hailing Zhang (University of Utah) |
Mohan Ramamurthy (UCAR/Unidata) |
Session4: The 2012 Tropical Cyclone Season in Review | |
Session Leader
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53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron 2012 Hurricane Season Reconnaissance Summary |
Lt Col Jonathan Talbot (USAFR/53 WRS) |
NOAA Aircraft Operations Center (AOC) 2012 Seasonal Summary and Future Plans |
Jim McFadden (NOAA/AOC) |
Targeted Observations for Improving Numerical Weather Prediction: Review and Recommendations |
Sharan Majumdar (RSMAS/University of Miami) |
Review of the 2012 Central Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season and Preliminary Verification |
Tom Evans (NWS/CPHC) |
An Overview of Joint Typhoon Warning Center Tropical Cyclone Forecast Improvement Focus |
Brian R. Strahl (JTWC) |
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Not presented at the IHC but added here for your reference. |
Session 5a: Joint Hurricane Testbed Project Updates, Part 1 | |
Session Leaders Vijay Tallapragada (NCEP/EMC) and John Cortinas (NOAA/OAR) |
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Jiann-Gwo Jiing, Chris Landsea, and Shirley Murillo (JHT) |
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Improved SFMR Surface Wind Measurements in Intense Rain Conditions |
Eric Uhlhorn (NOAA/OAR/AOML) and Brad Klotz (CIMAS/Univ. of Miami) |
Improved Automation and Performance of VORTRAC Intensity Guidance |
Wen-Chau Lee (NCAR), Michael Bell (Univ. of Hawaii), and Paul Harasti, (NRL Monterey) |
John A. Knaff (NESDIS), Renate Brummer (CIRA/CSU), Mark DeMaria (NESDIS), and Chris Landsea, Michael Brennan, Robbie Berg, and Jessica Schauer (NHC) |
Session 5b: Joint Hurricane Testbed Project Updates, Part 2 | |
Session Leaders Vijay Tallapragada (NCEP/EMC) and John Cortinas (NOAA/OAR) |
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Development of a Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Genesis Prediction Scheme |
Jason Dunion (UM/CIMAS, AOML), John Kaplan (NOAA/OAR/AOML), Andrea Schumacher (CSU/CIRA), Joshua Cossuth (FSU/COAPS), and Mark DeMaria (NESDIS) |
Upgrades to the Operational GFDL/GFDN Hurricane Model Planned for 2013 |
Morris A. Bender, Timothy Marchok (NOAA/ GFDL), Biju Thomas and Isaac Ginis (University of Rhode Island) and Robert Tuleya (CCPO/Old Dominion University) |
Isaac Ginis, Richard Yablonsky, Biju Thomas (University of Rhode Island), Vijay Tallapragada, Hendrik Tolman (NCEP), and Morris Bender (GFDL) |
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Tomislava Vukicevic (NOAA/OAR/AOML) and Tom Greenwald (Univ. of Wisconsin/CIMSS ) |
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Improvement to the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index:: A Year-2 JHT Project Update |
John Kaplan (NOAA/AOML), Christopher M. Rozoff (CIMSS), Charles R. Sampson (NRL), Jim Kossin (NCDC), Chris Velden (CIMSS), and Mark DeMaria (NESDIS) |
Mark DeMaria (NOAA/NESDIS), Andrea Schumacher (CIRA/CSU), John A. Knaff (NOAA/ NESDIS), and Renate Brummer (CIRA/CSU) |
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Enhancement of SHIPS-RI Index using Satellite 37 GHz Microwave Ring Pattern |
Haiyan Jiang (Florida Intl Univ.), Margie Kieper and Tie Yuan (FIU), Edward J. Zipser (Univ. of Utah), and John Kaplan (HRD) |
Jim Kossin (NOAA/NCDC) and Matt Sitkowski, Will Lewis, and Chris Rozoff (CIMSS) |
Session 6: Tropical Cyclone Model Development and Technology Transfer | |
Session Leaders Dave McCarren (Navy/CNMOC) and Michael Farrar (NWS/OST) |
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Further Advancements to the NCEP Operational HWRF Modeling System for 2013 and Beyond |
Vijay Tallapragada (NCEP/EMC) |
Richard M. Hodur (SAIC/Innovative Employee Solutions), J. Doyle, E. Hendricks, Y. Jin, J. Moskaitis, K. Sashegyi, and J. Schmidt (NRL/ Monterey) |
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Barbara G. Brown, Louisa Nance, Paul A. Kucera, and Christopher L. Williams (NCAR) |
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Improved Telescopic Nesting and its Effects on Hurricane Forecasting |
Samuel Trahan (I.M. Systems Group/NCEP), Young Kwon (EMC/IMSG), Qingfu Liu (EMC) Xuejin Zhang (UM/CIMAS), Hui-Ya Chuang (EMC), Dave Zelinsky (NHC/SRG), Greg Thompson (NCAR), Shaowu Bao (ESRL) Ligia Bernardet (ESRL), Vijay Tallapragada (EMC), Brad Ferrier (EMC/IMSG) |
Potential Upgrades for the Radiation and Boundary Layer Physics in the Operational HWRF Model |
Young Kwon (EMC/IMSG), Chanh Kieu , Weiguo Wang , Sam Trahan, Qingfu Liu, Zhan Zhang, Vijay Tallapragada (EMC) and Jun Zhang (HRD) |
Ligia Bernardet (NOAA/ESRL), Eric Uhlhorn (HRD), Shaowu Bao (NOAA/ESRL), Joe Cione (HRD) |
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Further Development of a Statistical Ensemble for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction |
Kate D. Musgrave (CIRA/CSU), Mark DeMaria (NESDIS), Brian D. McNoldy (Univ. of Miami), Yi Jin (NRL Monterey), and Michael Fiorino (ESRL) |
Russell L. Elsberry, Hsiao-Chung Tsai, Mary S. Jordan (Naval Postgraduate School) and Fredric Vitart (ECMWF, Shinfield Park, England) |
Conference Banquet
Hagemeyer Award Presentation
--2013--
Mr. Jeff Hawkins--2012
Dr.
Peter G. Black -- 2011
Dr. Jim Goerss --2010
Dr. Mark DeMaria --2009
Mr. Robert Dumont--2008
Mr. Charles J. “Charlie” Neumann--2007
Dr. Joanne Simpson--2006
Dr. Frank D. Marks, Jr.--2005
Mr. Max Mayfield--2004
Mr. Chris Velden--2003
Prof. Russell Elsberry--2002
Session 7: Observations and Observing Strategies for Tropical Cyclones and their Environment | |
Session Leaders Scott Braun (NASA/GSFC) and Svetla Hristova-Veleva (NASA/JPL) |
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The 2012 Satellite Proving Ground at the National Hurricane Center (large file 100+MBs) |
Michael Folmer (UM/CICS) and Jack Beven, Michael Brennan, Hugh Cobb, Mark DeMaria, John Knaff, Christopher Velden, Jason Dunion, Gary Jedlovec, Kevin Fuell |
Christopher S. Velden and John Sears (University of Wisconsin-Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) |
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Peter G. Black (SAIC/NRL Monterey), Jon Moskaitis, James Doyle, Chris Velden, and Scott Braun |
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Gerald. Heymsfield (NASA/GSFC) and S. Guimond (NASA ORAU), L. Li and M. Mclinden (NASA GSFC), J. Carswell (Remote Sensing Solutions), and L. Tian (UMBC GEST) |
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Retrievals of Wind and Rain Rate from Combined Measurements of Up-Looking and Down-Looking SFMR(s) |
Mark Goodberlet and Ivan PopStefanija (ProSensing) |
Elizabeth R. Sanabia and Bradford S. Barrett (USNA), Peter Black (SAIC/NRL Monterey), Sue Chen and James Cummings (NRL Monterey) |
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Observations of Upwelling Processes during Tropical Storm Isaac |
Benjamin Jaime, Lynn K. Shay, Jodi Brewster, Ryan Schuster (RSMAS/Univ. of Miami) and Mark Powell (AOML/HRD) |
Progressing toward a Geostationary Microwave Sounder Mission |
Bjorn Lambrigtsen (NASA/JPL) |
Session 8: Improvements in Tropical Cyclone Forecast and Warning Products and Services | |
Session Leaders Tim McClung (NWS/OST) and Jim Goerss (NRL/Monterey) |
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Stephen Lord (NWS), Michael Bilder (NWS), Mark Powell (OAR/AOML), Jesse Feyen (NOS), Andre Westhuysen (NWS/EMC), and Tim Owen (NESDIS/NCDC) |
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Using USACE-ERDC's Coastal Storm Modeling System in Support of Hurricane Sandy Operations |
Chris Massey (USACE-ERDC-CHL) |
USGS Monitoring of Storm-Tide for Hurricanes Isaac and Sandy |
Robert R. Mason, Benton D. McGee, and Brian E. McCallum (USGS) |
Paul Fanelli (NOAA/NOS/Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services) |
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Use of a Modified SHIPS Algorithm for Hurricane Intensity Forecasts |
T.N. Krishnamurti and Amit Bhardwaj (Florida State University) |
Impact of New Predictors on Corrected Consensus TC Track Forecast Error |
James S. Goerss (Innovative Employee Solutions/NRL/Monterey) |
Are Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts Improving? |
J. R. Moskaitis (NRL/ Monterey) |
CLIQR: A Climatological Analog Matcher to Ongoing Tropical Cyclones |
David Roth (NWS/NCEP/HPC) |
Dave Jones, Founder, President & CEO, StormCenter Communications, Inc. |
Session 9: Social Science Applications to the Tropical Cyclone Forecast and Warning Notification Problem | |
Session Leaders Ms. Jennifer Moore Sprague (NWS) and Ms.Tracy Rouleau (NWS) |
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Jennifer Moore Sprague (NWS), B. Morrow, J.K. Lazo, J. Rhome, R. Berg, L. Nadeau, and E. Fago |
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Betty Hearn Morrow ( SocResearch, Miami, FL), J. K. Lazo, J. Rhome, R. Berg, L. Nadeau, and E. Fago |
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Communication of Hurricane Storm Surge Threat: A Mixed-Method Analysis |
Kathleen Sherman-Morris (Mississippi State University) |
Evaluation of the NC-CERA Storm Surge and Wave Visualization Tool by Emergency Managers |
Jessica L. Losego (Institute for the Environment, University of North Carolina) |
Final Plenary Session Coordinator: Dr. Paul D. Try (OFCM/STC) | |
Session Moderator Colonel John Egentowich Acting Air Force Director of Weather |
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Dr. Edward Rappaport (NCEP/NHC) Chairperson, WG/HWSOR |
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Conference Wrap-Up |
- Dr. Michael C. Morgan, NSF - Dr. Alexander E. (Sandy) MacDonald, NOAA/ESRL - Dr. Ronald Ferek, ONR - Dr. Frank Marks, Jr., NOAA/HRD |
Mr. Samuel P. Williamson Federal Coordinator for Meteorology |
POSTERS FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE RESEARCH FORUM
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P01 |
Keith G. Blackwell (University of South Alabama) |
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P02 |
A Highly Configurable Vortex Initialization Method for Tropical Cyclones |
Brian McNoldy, David Nolan, and Sharan Majumdar (RSMAS/University of Miami) Eric Rappin (Western Kentucky Univ.) |
P03 |
Quantifying Predictability of Environmental Parameters associated with Tropical Cyclogenesis) |
William Komaromi, Jonathan Labriola, and Sharan Majumdar (RSMAS/University of Miami) |
P04 |
Ensemble Kalman Assimilation of Global-Hawk-based Data from Tropical Cyclones |
Jason Sippel (NASA/GSFC) |
P05 poster |
Azimuthal Variation in the Eyewall's Surface-Wind Speed May Increase Maximum Potential Intensity |
Owen Kelley (NASA/GSFC) and Daniel Meléndez (NWS/OST) |
P06 |
Stephen Guimond (Univ. of Maryland/ESSIC and NASA/GSFC), Lin Tian (Morgan State Univ. and NASA/GSFC), Gerald Heymsfield (NASA/GSFC), and Stephen Frasier (Univ. of Massachusetts) |
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P07 |
Yaítza Luna-Cruz (Howard University), Andrew J. Heymsfield, Gregory Thompson , Gregory Jenkins, Trude Eidhammer, and Aaron Bansemer |
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P08 |
Lauren McCann, Mary Cox, and Elizabeth Sanabia (USNA) |
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P09 |
Development of a new Tropical Cyclone Verification Toolkit (MET-TC) |
Kathryn Newman, John Halley Gotway, Tressa Fowler, Paul Kucera, Barbara Brown, and Louisa Nance (NCAR) |
P10 |
A Developmental Framework for Improving Hurricane Model Physical Parameterizations Using Aircraft Observations |
Jun Zhang (CIMAS/HRD), Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan (HRD), Frank Marks (HRD), Robert Rogers (HRD), and Vijay Tallapragada (EMC) |
P11 |
The 48-hour NESDIS Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Product |
Andrea B. Schumacher (CIRA/CSU) and Mark DeMaria (NESDIS/StAR) |
P12 |
Svetla. Hristova-Veleva, Z. Haddad, B. Knosp, B. Lambrigtsen, P. P. Li, N. Niamsuwan, W. L. Poulsen, T.P. Shen, S. Tanelli, F. J. Turk, Q. A. Vu (JPL ) |
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P13 |
Community Support and Testing of the Hurricane WRF Model at the Developmental Testbed Center |
Shaowu Bao, Ligia Bernardet, andTimothy Brown (ESRL/CIRES) and Mrinal Biswas, Donald Stark, and Laurie Carson (NCAR) |
P14 |
Ziad S. Haddad[1,2], Jeffrey Steward[2], Tomislava Vukicevic[3], Svetla Hristova‐VelevaU[1,2] ([1]UCLA/JIFRESSE, [2]NASA/JPL, & [3]NOAA/AOML) |
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Modular Modelingof Tropical-Cyclone Structure:Support of Global Hawk Missions |
Frank Fendell Northrop Grumman Aerospace Systems |