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Theme - Tropical Cyclone Research: Our Vision for the Future
Dates: March 5 – 7, 2013
Location: NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction College Park, MD (and as a Webinar)
Opening Session
Conference Opening Mr. Samuel P. Williamson, Federal Coordinator for Meteorology
Welcoming Remarks Dr. Louis Uccellini, Director, National Weather Service
Invited Comments Acting Secretary of Commerce Dr. Rebecca Blank (invited)
Setting the Stage for the Forum Mr. Samuel P. Williamson, Federal Coordinator for Meteorology
Panel Session: The Emergency Response to Hurricane Sandy
Moderator: Mr. Bryan Norcross, The Weather Channel Hurricane Specialist
Panelists:
- Captain Thomas Scardino, Executive Officer, Emergency Management Section, New Jersey Homeland Security Branch
- Mr. Richard A. French, New York State Office of Emergency Management
Session 1: Tropical Cyclone Research: Federal Agency Overview
Introduction of Panel Moderator: Dr. Paul D. Try, Senior Vice President Science and Technology Corporation
Senior Leader Panel: Tropical Cyclone Research: The View from the Top
Moderator: John D. Murphy, Director, Office of Science and Technology, National Weather Service
Panelists:
- Dr. Jack Kaye, Associate Director and Research and Analysis Lead, Earth Science Division, National Aeronautics and Space Administration
- Dr. Ronald Ferek, Program Officer, Marine Meteorology Program, Office of Naval Research
- Dr. Frank Marks, Jr., Director, NOAA's Hurricane Research Division
- Dr. Alexander E. (Sandy) MacDonald, Director of NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory and Deputy Assistant Administrator for Research Laboratories and Cooperative Institutes
- Dr. Michael C. Morgan, Division Director of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences, National Science Foundation
Session 2: Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research
Session Leaders: Dr. Frank Marks, Co-Chair WG/TCR and Director Hurricane Research Division (NOAA/AOML) and Dr. Ronald Ferek, Co-Chair WG/TCR and Program Officer Marine Meteorology Program(ONR)
Comparison of the 2010 and 2012 Snapshots of Tropical Cyclone Research and Development Frank Marks (AOML/HRD) and Ronald Ferek (ONR)
Session 3a: The Navy's Model Development and Improvement Program/Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP): Supporting Talks
Session Leaders: Dr. Ron Ferek and Dr. Frank Marks
- The Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project: Recent Operational Implementation Bob Gall (NWS), Fred Toepfer (NWS), Frank Marks (AOML/HRD), and Ed Rappaport (NHC)
- Recent COAMPS-TC Development and Real-Time Tests
James D. Doyle (NRL/Monterey), R. Hodur (SAIC), S. Chen, E. Hendricks, T. Holt, H. Jin, Y. Jin, J. Moskaitis, M. Peng, A. Reinecke, K. Sashegyi, J. Schmidt, and S. Wang (NRL/Monterey)
- NASA's Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3): Results from The 2012 Deployment and Plans for 2013 Scott A. Braun and Paul A. Newman (NASA/GSFC)
- Improving the Assimilation of Multiple and Integrated High-Resolution Satellite Datasets in Mesoscale Models Of Tropical Cyclones Chris Velden (CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin) and Sharan Majumdar (RSMAS/Univ. of Miami)
- The Basin-Scale HWRF: Looking Beyond the 10-M Wind Speed for Improved Storm Predictions Sundararaman G.Gopalakrishnan (AOML/HRD), Vijay Tallapragada (NCEP/EMC), Xuejin Zhang (CIMAS), Frank Marks, Jr., and Robert Atlas (AOML/HRD)
Session 3b: Earth System Predication Capability (ESPC)/Next-Generation Suite of Models: Supporting Talks
Session Leader: Dr. Alexander E. (Sandy) MacDonald (OAR/ERSL)
Session 3c: NSF Program Initiatives: Supporting Talks
Session Leader: Dr. Michael C. Morgan (NSF)
Session 4: The 2012 Tropical Cyclone Season in Review
Session Leader: Mr. Robert Dumont, OFCM
Session 5a: Joint Hurricane Testbed Project Updates, Part 1
Session Leaders: Vijay Tallapragada (NCEP/EMC) and John Cortinas (NOAA/OAR)
- An Update on The Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT) Jiann-Gwo Jiing, Chris Landsea, and Shirley Murillo (JHT)
- Improved SFMR Surface Wind Measurements in Intense Rain Conditions Eric Uhlhorn (NOAA/OAR/AOML) and Brad Klotz (CIMAS/Univ. of Miami)
- Improved Automation and Performance of VORTRAC Intensity Guidance Wen-Chau Lee (NCAR), Michael Bell (Univ. of Hawaii), and Paul Harasti, (NRL Monterey)
- Development of a Real-Time Automated Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Analysis: A Year-2 Joint Hurricane Testbed Project Update John A. Knaff (NESDIS), Renate Brummer (CIRA/CSU), Mark DeMaria (NESDIS), and Chris Landsea, Michael Brennan, Robbie Berg, and Jessica Schauer (NHC)
Session 5b: Joint Hurricane Testbed Project Updates, Part 2
Session Leaders: Vijay Tallapragada (NCEP/EMC) and John Cortinas (NOAA/OAR)
- Development of a Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Genesis Prediction Scheme Jason Dunion (UM/CIMAS, AOML), John Kaplan (NOAA/OAR/AOML), Andrea Schumacher (CSU/CIRA), Joshua Cossuth (FSU/COAPS), and Mark DeMaria (NESDIS)
- Upgrades to the Operational GFDL/GFDN Hurricane Model Planned for 2013 Morris A. Bender, Timothy Marchok (NOAA/ GFDL), Biju Thomas and Isaac Ginis (University of Rhode Island) and Robert Tuleya (CCPO/Old Dominion University)
- Advancing HWRF and GFDL/GFDN Prediction Systems through New and Enhanced Physics of the Air-Sea-Wave Coupling Planned for 2013 Isaac Ginis, Richard Yablonsky, Biju Thomas (University of Rhode Island), Vijay Tallapragada, Hendrik Tolman (NCEP), and Morris Bender (GFDL)
- Validation of HWRF Forecasts with Satellite Observations Tomislava Vukicevic (NOAA/OAR/AOML) and Tom Greenwald (Univ. of Wisconsin/CIMSS )
- Improvement to the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index:: A Year-2 JHT Project Update John Kaplan (NOAA/AOML), Christopher M. Rozoff (CIMSS), Charles R. Sampson (NRL), Jim Kossin (NCDC), Chris Velden (CIMSS), and Mark DeMaria (NESDIS)
- Improvements in Statistical Tropical Cyclone Forecast Models: A Year 2 Joint Hurricane Testbed Project Update Mark DeMaria (NOAA/NESDIS), Andrea Schumacher (CIRA/CSU), John A. Knaff (NOAA/ NESDIS), and Renate Brummer (CIRA/CSU)
- Enhancement of SHIPS-RI Index using Satellite 37 GHz Microwave Ring Pattern Haiyan Jiang (Florida Intl Univ.), Margie Kieper and Tie Yuan (FIU), Edward J. Zipser (Univ. of Utah), and John Kaplan (HRD)
- A New Secondary Eyewall Formation Index; Transition to Operations and Quantification of Associated Hurricane Intensity and Structure Changes: A Joint Hurricane Testbed Project) Jim Kossin (NOAA/NCDC) and Matt Sitkowski, Will Lewis, and Chris Rozoff (CIMSS)
Session 6: Tropical Cyclone Model Development and Technology Transfer
Session Leaders: Dave McCarren (Navy/CNMOC) and Michael Farrar (NWS/OST)
- Further Advancements to the NCEP Operational HWRF Modeling System for 2013 and Beyond Vijay Tallapragada (NCEP/EMC)
- Application and Improvements to COAMPS-TC Richard M. Hodur (SAIC/Innovative Employee Solutions), J. Doyle, E. Hendricks, Y. Jin, J. Moskaitis, K. Sashegyi, and J. Schmidt (NRL/ Monterey)
- Evaluation of Experimental Models for Tropical Cyclone Forecasting in Support of the NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) Barbara G. Brown, Louisa Nance, Paul A. Kucera, and Christopher L. Williams (NCAR)
- Improved Telescopic Nesting and its Effects on Hurricane Forecasting Samuel Trahan (I.M. Systems Group/NCEP), Young Kwon (EMC/IMSG), Qingfu Liu (EMC) Xuejin Zhang (UM/CIMAS), Hui-Ya Chuang (EMC), Dave Zelinsky (NHC/SRG), Greg Thompson (NCAR), Shaowu Bao (ESRL) Ligia Bernardet (ESRL), Vijay Tallapragada (EMC), Brad Ferrier (EMC/IMSG)
- Potential Upgrades for the Radiation and Boundary Layer Physics in the Operational HWRF Model Young Kwon (EMC/IMSG), Chanh Kieu , Weiguo Wang , Sam Trahan, Qingfu Liu, Zhan Zhang, Vijay Tallapragada (EMC) and Jun Zhang (HRD)
- Evaluation of the Ocean Response in HWRF: How Changes in the Atmosphere-Ocean Fluxes Affect Forecast Skill Ligia Bernardet (NOAA/ESRL), Eric Uhlhorn (HRD), Shaowu Bao (NOAA/ESRL), Joe Cione (HRD)
- Further Development of a Statistical Ensemble for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction Kate D. Musgrave (CIRA/CSU), Mark DeMaria (NESDIS), Brian D. McNoldy (Univ. of Miami), Yi Jin (NRL Monterey), and Michael Fiorino (ESRL)
- Extended-range (5-30 day) Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones with the ECMWF Ensemble: Atlantic during HS3 Field Experiment Russell L. Elsberry, Hsiao-Chung Tsai, Mary S. Jordan (Naval Postgraduate School) and Fredric Vitart (ECMWF, Shinfield Park, England)
Conference Banquet
Hagemeyer Award Presentation
2013: Dr. Jim McFadden
2012: Mr. Jeff Hawkins
2011: Dr. Peter G. Black
2010: Dr. Jim Goerss
2009: Dr. Mark DeMaria
2008: Mr. Robert Dumont
2007: Mr. Charles J. "Charlie" Neumann
2006: Dr. Joanne Simpson
2005: Dr. Frank D. Marks, Jr.
2004: Mr. Max Mayfield
2003: Mr. Chris Velden
2002: Prof. Russell Elsberry
Session 7: Observations and Observing Strategies for Tropical Cyclones and their Environment
Session Leaders: Scott Braun (NASA/GSFC) and Svetla Hristova-Veleva (NASA/JPL)
- The 2012 Satellite Proving Ground at the National Hurricane Center (large file 100+MBs) Michael Folmer (UM/CICS) and Jack Beven, Michael Brennan, Hugh Cobb, Mark DeMaria, John Knaff, Christopher Velden, Jason Dunion, Gary Jedlovec, Kevin Fuell
- Computing Deep-Tropospheric Vertical Wind Shear Analyses for TC Applications: Does the Methodology Matter? Christopher S. Velden and John Sears (University of Wisconsin-Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS)
- Outflow Layer Structure in Hurricanes Leslie And Nadine Revealed by Dropsondes Deployed from NASA Global Hawk UAV Aircraft during the 2012 Hurricane and Severe Storms Sentinel (HS3) Campaign: A New TC Observational Strategy Peter G. Black (SAIC/NRL Monterey), Jon Moskaitis, James Doyle, Chris Velden, and Scott Braun
- HIWRAP Global Hawk Status and Future Plans Gerald. Heymsfield (NASA/GSFC) and S. Guimond (NASA ORAU), L. Li and M. Mclinden (NASA GSFC), J. Carswell (Remote Sensing Solutions), and L. Tian (UMBC GEST)
- Retrievals of Wind and Rain Rate from Combined Measurements of Up-Looking and Down-Looking SFMR(s) Mark Goodberlet and Ivan PopStefanija (ProSensing)
- Implementation of Upper-Ocean Temperature Measurements on Operational Hurricane Reconnaissance: An Update on the AXBT Demonstration Project Elizabeth R. Sanabia and Bradford S. Barrett (USNA), Peter Black (SAIC/NRL Monterey), Sue Chen and James Cummings (NRL Monterey)
- Observations of Upwelling Processes during Tropical Storm Isaac Benjamin Jaime, Lynn K. Shay, Jodi Brewster, Ryan Schuster (RSMAS/Univ. of Miami) and Mark Powell (AOML/HRD)
- Progressing toward a Geostationary Microwave Sounder Mission Bjorn Lambrigtsen (NASA/JPL)
Session 8: Improvements in Tropical Cyclone Forecast and Warning Products and Services
Session Leaders: Tim McClung (NWS/OST) and Jim Goerss (NRL/Monterey)
Invited Presentation
Collaborative Decision Making: Connecting Agencies (Federal & State) and the Private Sector for Improved Situational Awareness, Coordination, and Response to Save Lives and Property Dave Jones, Founder, President & CEO, StormCenter Communications, Inc.
Session 9: Social Science Applications to the Tropical Cyclone Forecast and Warning Notification Problem
Session Leaders: Ms. Jennifer Moore Sprague (NWS) and Ms. Tracy Rouleau (NWS)
- Supporting the Integration of Physical and Social Science as it relates to the NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) Jennifer Moore Sprague (NWS), B. Morrow, J.K. Lazo, J. Rhome, R. Berg, L. Nadeau, and E. Fago
- Utilizing Input from Emergency Managers, the Media, the Public and Local NWS Meteorologists to Better Communicate Surge and Other Storm Hazards Betty Hearn Morrow ( SocResearch, Miami, FL), J. K. Lazo, J. Rhome, R. Berg, L. Nadeau, and E. Fago
- Communication of Hurricane Storm Surge Threat: A Mixed-Method Analysis Kathleen Sherman-Morris (Mississippi State University)
- Evaluation of the NC-CERA Storm Surge and Wave Visualization Tool by Emergency Managers Jessica L. Losego (Institute for the Environment, University of North Carolina)
Final Plenary Session
Session Coordinator: Dr. Paul D. Try (OFCM/STC)
Session Moderator: Colonel John Egentowich Acting Air Force Director of Weather
- WG/HWSOR: Action Item Review Dr. Edward Rappaport (NCEP/NHC) Chairperson, WG/HWSOR
- Conference Wrap-Up: Dr. Michael C. Morgan, NSF; Dr. Alexander E. (Sandy) MacDonald, NOAA/ESRL; Dr. Ronald Ferek, ONR; Dr. Frank Marks, Jr., NOAA/HRD
- Final Wrap-up Mr. Samuel P. Williamson Federal Coordinator for Meteorology
POSTERS FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE RESEARCH FORUM
- P01: A Convective Band Within the Inner Core of Hurricane Isaac at Landfall: Is This An Inner Eyewall or Just a Transient Banding Feature? Keith G. Blackwell (University of South Alabama)
- P02: A Highly Configurable Vortex Initialization Method for Tropical Cyclones Brian McNoldy, David Nolan, and Sharan Majumdar (RSMAS/University of Miami) Eric Rappin (Western Kentucky Univ.)
- P03: Quantifying Predictability of Environmental Parameters associated with Tropical Cyclogenesis) William Komaromi, Jonathan Labriola, and Sharan Majumdar (RSMAS/University of Miami)
- P04: Ensemble Kalman Assimilation of Global-Hawk-based Data from Tropical Cyclones Jason Sippel (NASA/GSFC)
- P05: Azimuthal Variation in the Eyewall's Surface-Wind Speed May Increase Maximum Potential Intensity Owen Kelley (NASA/GSFC) and Daniel Meléndez (NWS/OST)
- P06: Tropical Cyclone Inner-Core Structure from Downward-Pointing, Conically-Scanning Airborne Doppler Radar: IWRAP and HIWRAP Stephen Guimond (Univ. of Maryland/ESSIC and NASA/GSFC), Lin Tian (Morgan State Univ. and NASA/GSFC), Gerald Heymsfield (NASA/GSFC), and Stephen Frasier (Univ. of Massachusetts)
- P07: Aerosols-Cloud-Microphysics Interactions in Tropical Cyclones using Aircraft Observations and the WRF-ARW Model Yaítza Luna-Cruz (Howard University), Andrew J. Heymsfield, Gregory Thompson , Gregory Jenkins, Trude Eidhammer, and Aaron Bansemer
- P08: The Impact of Ocean Heat Content Observations Collected during Operational Weather Reconnaissance Flights on SHIPS Intensity Forecasts in Hurricanes Ernesto and Isaac (2012) Lauren McCann, Mary Cox, and Elizabeth Sanabia (USNA)
- P09: Development of a new Tropical Cyclone Verification Toolkit (MET-TC) Kathryn Newman, John Halley Gotway, Tressa Fowler, Paul Kucera, Barbara Brown, and Louisa Nance (NCAR)
- P10: A Developmental Framework for Improving Hurricane Model Physical Parameterizations Using Aircraft Observations Jun Zhang (CIMAS/HRD), Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan (HRD), Frank Marks (HRD), Robert Rogers (HRD), and Vijay Tallapragada (EMC)
- P11: The 48-hour NESDIS Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Product Andrea B. Schumacher (CIRA/CSU) and Mark DeMaria (NESDIS/StAR)
- P12: The JPL Tropical Cyclone Information System – A Tool for Hurricane Research, Model Evaluation and Satellite Algorithm Development: Current State and Ongoing Development Svetla. Hristova-Veleva, Z. Haddad, B. Knosp, B. Lambrigtsen, P. P. Li, N. Niamsuwan, W. L. Poulsen, T.P. Shen, S. Tanelli, F. J. Turk, Q. A. Vu (JPL )
- P13: Community Support and Testing of the Hurricane WRF Model at the Developmental Testbed Center Shaowu Bao, Ligia Bernardet, andTimothy Brown (ESRL/CIRES) and Mrinal Biswas, Donald Stark, and Laurie Carson (NCAR)
- P14: A Robust Observation Operator and Associated Background Covariances to Assimilate Rain Microwave Radiance into Cloud-Permitting Models Ziad S. Haddad[1,2], Jeffrey Steward[2], Tomislava Vukicevic[3], Svetla Hristova‐Veleva[1,2] ([1]UCLA/JIFRESSE, [2]NASA/JPL, & [3]NOAA/AOML)
Modular Modeling of Tropical-Cyclone Structure: Support of Global Hawk Missions Frank Fendell Northrop Grumman Aerospace Systems