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OFCM

Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology

 

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Theme: Ocean and Atmospheric Influences on Tropical Cyclone Predictions: Challenges and Recent Progress

February 28th - March 3rd, 2011

Miami, Florida

Opening Session

  • Welcome/Opening Remarks: The Honorable Carlos Alvarez Mayor, Miami-Dade County, Florida
  • Opening Remarks/Introduction: Mr. Samuel P. Williamson Federal Coordinator
  • Invited Comments: Major Phillip May Director, FEMA Region IV

Panel: Advances in Tropical Cyclone Predictions: A Senior Leader Perspective

Moderators: Dr. Kerry A. Emanuel Director, Program in Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climate, and Professor of Atmospheric Science, MIT

Panelists:

  • Dr. John “Jack” Hayes, Assistant Administrator for Weather Services, NOAA
  • Colonel John Egentowich, Air Force Deputy Director of Weather
  • Captain Michael Angove, Commanding Officer, U.S. Naval Maritime Forecast Center/Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Session 1: Comparisons of the 2008 and 2010 Snapshots of Tropical Cyclone R & D

Session Leader: Dr. Haiyan Jiang, Department of Earth & Environment, Florida International University

Panelists:

Session 2: The 2010 Tropical Cyclone Season in Review

Invited Presentation

Mr. X. William (Bill) Proenza Director, National Weather Service Southern Region

Session 3: Observations and Observing Strategies for Tropical Cyclones and their Environment, Part 1

Session 4: Observations and Observing Strategies for Tropical Cyclones and their Environment, Part 2

  • Real-Time Airborne Ocean Measurements and Predictions of Loop Current Eddy Shedding During the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill: Implications for Hurricane Intensity Forecasting Lynn K. Shay (RSMAS/UM), B. Jaimes, J. K. Brewster, P. Meyers, C. McCaskill, S. Paul, E. W. Uhlhorn, F. D. Marks, and G. R. Halliwell ppt (4.9MB)
  • First Flights of HIWRAP During GRIP Gerald Heymsfield (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center), L. Li, J. Carswell, M. Mclinden, M. Perrine, L. Tian, A. Reynolds, and S. Guimond pptx (10.2MB)
  • WISDOM Intensity Program-Weather Hurricane In-situ Sea Surface Probe (WHISSP) Justyna Nicinska (NOAA/OAR), R. B. Chadwick, and R. Johnson ppt (5.2MB)
  • New Tools for Tropical Cyclone Radar Rainfall Estimation Dan Berkowitz (Radar Operations Center) pptx (1.3MB)
  • A Two-Dimensional Velocity Dealiasing Algorithm for the WSR-88D W. David Zittel (Radar Operations Center), Z. Jing, and N. Langlieb ppt (3.5MB)
  • A Summary of New Activities to Expand the Caribbean Sounding and Surface Networks: The IASCLIP and COCONet Initiatives Michael W. Douglas (NOAA/OAR/NSSL) ppt (12.7MB)
  • Establishing an Improved National Capability for Collection of Extreme Storm and Flood Data Robert R. Mason (USGS), W. Birkemeier, D. Catlett, W. Coulbourne, R. R. Holmes, A. Ramirez, W. Shaffer, and D. Turnipseed ppt (10.9MB)

Session 5: Tropical Cyclone Model Development and Technology Transfer, Part 1

  • Advancements to the Operational HWRF Modeling System at EMC Vijay Tallapragada (NCEP/EMC) ppt (6.2MB)
  • Issues in Transitioning HWRF Upgrades into Operations at EMC Robert E. Tuleya (CCPO/ODU), Y. Kwon, V. Tallapragada, Z. Zhang, Y. Wu, Q. Liu, and J. O’Connor ppt (488 KB)
  • 2011 Operational HWRF Model Upgrades Young Kwon (NCEP/EMC), V. Tallaparagada, R. Tuleya, Q. Liu, K. Yeh, Z. Zhang, S. Trahan, and J. O’Connor pptx (1.2MB)
  • Major Upgrades Planned in 2011 for the GFDL Hurricane Prediction System Morris A. Bender (NOAA/GFDL) , I. Ginis, B. Thomas, and R. Yablonsky ppt (1.6MB)
  • An Overview of COAMPS-TC Development and Real-Time Tests James Doyle (NRL), R. Hodur, S. Chen, J. Cummings, E. Hendricks, T. Holt, H. Jin, Y. Jin, C.-S. Liou, J. Moskaitis, M. Peng, K. Sashegyi, J. Schmidt, and S. Wang ppt (32.3MB)
  • Progress Towards Developing a Coupled Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean Framework for Research and Operational Hurricane Models Isaac Ginis (URI), B. Thomas, R. Yablonsky, T. Hara, J. Bao, C. Fairall, and L. Bianco ppt (6.3MB)
  • Evaluation and Improvement of Ocean Model Parameterizations for NCEP Operations Lynn K. Shay (RSMAS/UM), G. R. Halliwell, and B. Jaimes ppt (2.9MB)
  • Session 6: Tropical Cyclone Model Development and Technology Transfer, Part 2

    • Prediction of Consensus TC Track Forecast Error (2005-2010) James S. Goerss (NRL) ppt (197 KB)
    • Ensemble Forecasting Products for Tropical Cyclones at the UK Met Office Piers Buchanan (Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom ) and K. Mylne ppt (3.1MB)
    • Large Ensemble Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting Kerry Emanuel (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), R. Hoffman, S. Hopsch, D. Gombos, and T. Nehrkorn pptx (6.7MB)
    • The Performance of a GFDL Hurricane Model Ensemble Forecast System during the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Timothy Marchok (NOAA/GFDL) and M. Bender pptx (1.0MB)
    • Evaluation and Development of Ensemble Prediction System for the Operational HWRF Model Zhan Zhang (NCEP/EMC), V. Tallapragada, R. Tuleya, Q. Liu, Y. Kwon, S. Trahan, J. O’Connor, and W. M. Lapenta ppt (1.0MB)
    • Forecasting Tropical Cyclone Genesis/Development Using an Ensemble of High Resolution Deterministic Global Models – Results from the HFIP 2010 Summer Demo Mike Fiorino (NOAA/ESRL) pdf (4.6MB)
    • Ensemble-based Prediction and Diagnostics during the PREDICT Field Experiment Sharanya J. Majumdar (RSMAS/UM), R. D. Torn, and F. Zhang  pptx (5.6MB)

    Session 7: Tropical Cyclone Model Development and Technology Transfer, Part 3

    • Technology Transfer in Tropical Cyclone Numerical Modeling – The Role of the Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) Ligia Bernardet (NOAA/ESRL), S. Bao, C. Harrop, D. Stark, and T. Brown pptx (1.8MB)
    • Objective Evaluation of 2010 HFIP Stream 1.5 Candidates Louisa Nance (NCAR), C. Williams, M. Harrold, K. Newman, P. Kucera, and B. Brown pptx (1.7MB)
    • Hurricane Intensity and Structure Research Using NOAA's High Resolution Forecast Model and its Transition to Operations Sundararaman.G.Gopalakrishnan (AOML/HRD), F. Marks, and V. Tallapragada ppt (44.9MB)
    • Progress Towards a High-Resolution HWRF Model Sam Trahan (NCEP/EMC), V. Tallapragada, S.G.Gopalakrishnan, and X. Zhang ppt (9.8MB)
    • Evaluation and Improvements of Cloud and Precipitation Physics in the Operational Hurricane WRF Model at NOAA/EMC Yuqing Wang (University of Hawaii) pptx (4.8MB)
    • Controlling Factors of the Radius of Maximum Winds in HWRF Jian-Wen Bao (NOAA/ESRL), S. A. Michelson, and S.G.Gopalakrishnan ppt (3.8MB)
    • Tropical Cyclone Inner-Core Diagnostics Robert Rogers (AOML/HRD), P. Reasor, S. Lorsolo, and J. Zhang ppt (1.7MB)
    • On the Characteristic Height Scales of the Hurricane Boundary Layer: Dropsonde Composite Analysis for the Purpose of Model Diagnostics Jun Zhang (UM/CIMAS and NOAA/ HRD), R. Rogers, D. Nolan, and F. Marks ppt (2.9MB)

    Session 8: 2010 Joint Hurricane Field Experiments: PREDICT, GRIP, and IFEX (PGI)

    Moderator: Dr. Chris Landsea (NCEP/NHC) pptx (1.0MB)

    PGI: Program Overview and Goals

    • NASA-sponsored GRIP Dr. Ramesh K. Kakar, Weather Focus Area Leader for the NASA/Science Mission Directorate pptx (12.3MB)
    • NSF-sponsored PREDICT Dr. Michael C. Morgan, Director, Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences (NSF) pptx (1.7MB)
    • NOAA-sponsored IFEX Dr. Frank Marks, Director, Hurricane Research Division, NOAA/AOML pptx (5.7MB)

    PGI Field Observations and Preliminary Findings

    • NASA-sponsored GRIP Dr. Edward Zipser, Professor, Atmospheric Sciences, University of Utah pptx (10.3MB)
    • NSF-sponsored PREDICT Dr. Michael Montgomery, Professor, Department of Meteorology, Naval Postgraduate School ppt (18.7MB)
    • NOAA-sponsored IFEX Dr. Robert Rogers (NOAA/AOML/HRD) ppt (7.1MB)

    Session 9: ITOP/TCS-10: Coupled Air-Sea Observations and TC Predictions

    • Program Overview of ITOP/TCS10 Linwood Vincent (ONR) ppt (6.6MB)
    • Overview of the Impact of Typhoons on the Pacific (ITOP) Eric A. D’Asaro (U. of Washington) pptx (13.2MB)
    • Multi-Scale Observations of Cloud Clusters and Tropical Cyclones in ITOP/TCS10 Shuyi S. Chen (RSMAS/UM), B. Kerns, E. Ryan, and C. Lee ppt (21.5MB)
    • The Challenge of Measuring the Atmosphere-Ocean Interface in Tropical Cyclones: Observations from Air-Deployed Drifters Jan Morzel (Rosetta Consulting), L. Centurioni, and P.P Niiler ppt (24.3MB)
    • Pre-Genesis Monitoring of the 3-D Atmospheric and Oceanic Environment Via High Altitude Aircraft Observations Jeff Hawkins (NRL), P. Black, P. Harr, and R. Elsberry ppt (2.7MB)
    • Ocean Observations in Developing and Mature TCs Based on a New Airborne Observing Strategy: 'Combo' Deployments of AXBTs and GPS Dropsondes from Long-Endurance, Multi-Altitude Reconnaissance Flights Peter G. Black (NRL/SAIC) and J. D. Hawkins ppt (7.1MB)
    • An Overview of COAMPS-TC Forecasts and Targeting for ITOP Sue Chen (NRL), J. Doyle, R. Hodur, H. Jin, J. Cummings, and J. Schmidt ppt(27.9MB)
    • Multi-Model Coupled Air-Sea Forecasts of Typhoons during ITOP Brandon Kerns (RSMAS/UM), S. Chen, and C. Lee pptx (3.4MB)
    • Session 10: Other Research to Improve the Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Structure, Track, Precipitation, Coastal and Inland Inundation, Part 1

      • Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3): A Multi-Year Investigation of Atlantic Hurricanes Scott A. Braun (NASA/GSFC), P. A. Newman, M. Vasques pptx (10.0MB)
      • 2011 Plans for NOAA’s Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX) Shirley T. Murillo (AOML/HRD) ppt (2.6MB)
      • Estimating Tropical Cyclone Intensity from Infrared Image Data Elizabeth A. Ritchie (University of Arizona), M. Piñeros, J. Scott Tyo, and G. Valliere-Kelley pptx (1.6MB)
      • Airborne Surface Water and Ocean Topography Mapping System James Carswell (Remote Sensing Solutions) and D. Moller ppt (13.5MB)
      • The Experimental HWRF-HEDAS System: Model Evaluation in Preparation for Satellite Microwave Data Assimilation Inside the Hurricane Precipitation Area Svetla Hristova-Veleva (JPL, California Institute of Technology), S. Gopalakrishnan, T. Vukicevic, Z. Haddad, and T. Quirino pdf (40.1MB)
      • Hurricane Center-Fixing with the Automated Rotational Center Hurricane Eye Retrieval (ARCHER) Method Anthony Wimmers (UW-CIMSS), C. Velden ppt (4.0MB)
      • Intraseasonal to Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclogenesis: A Statistical-Dynamical Forecast System Tom Murphree (Naval Postgraduate School) and D. Meyer pptx (2.2MB)
      • Conference Banquet

        Banquet Address: Mr. Scott B. Gudes Vice President, Legislative Affairs Space Systems & Operations, Lockheed Martin Corporation ppt (3.9MB)

        Presentation of the Richard Hagemeyer Award

        2011: Dr. Peter G. Black

        2010: Dr. Jim Goerss

        2009: Dr. Mark DeMaria

        2008: Mr. Robert Dumont

        2007 Mr. Charles J. “Charlie” Neumann

        2006: Dr. Joanne Simpson

        2005: Dr. Frank D. Marks, Jr.

        2005 (Special): 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron

        2005 (Special): NOAA's Aircraft Operations Center

        2004: Mr. Max Mayfield

        2003: Mr. Chris Velden

        2002: Prof. Russell Elsberry

        Invited Presentations

        Dr. Brenda Phillips Professor of Political Science, Fire and Emergency Management Program, Oklahoma State University pptx (148 KB)

        Session 11: Other Research to Improve the Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Structure, Track, Precipitation, Coastal and Inland Inundation, Part 2

        • International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) Activities at NOAA’s NCDC Kenneth R. Knapp (NOAA/NCDC), H. Diamond, E. Gibney, P. Hennon, and M. Kruk ppt (4.5MB)
        • Dry Air in the Tropical Cyclone Environment Jason P. Dunion (RSMAS/UM and AOML/HRD) and G. Tripoli pptx (21.4MB)
        • Improvements to Statistical Intensity Forecasts John A. Knaff (NOAA/NESDIS/ STAR), M. DeMaria, K. Musgrave, J. Kaplan, C. Rozoff, J. Kossin, and C. Velden pptx (509 KB)
        • Improvements in the Statistical Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Christopher M. Rozoff (UW-CIMSS), J. Kossin, C. Velden, A. Wimmers, M. Kieper, J. Kaplan, J. Knaff, and M. DeMaria ppt (2.8MB)
        • Improving SHIPS Rapid Intensification (RI) Index Using 37 GHz Microwave Ring Pattern around the Center of Tropical Cyclones Haiyan Jiang (FIU), M. Kieper, T. Yuan, E. Zipser, and J. Kaplan ppt (5.3MB)
        • Forecasting Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific Using TRMM/TMI 37 GHz Microwave Signal Tie Yuan (FIU), H. Jiang, and M. Kieper ppt (5.6MB)

        Session 12: Joint Hurricane Testbed Project Updates and Improved Products

        • The Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT): 2010 Update Jiann-Gwo Jiing (Joint Hurricane Testbed), C. Landsea and S. Murillo pptx (1.0MB)
        • Enhancements to the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index John Kaplan (AOML/HRD), J. Cione, M. DeMaria, J. Knaff, J. Dunion, J. Solbrig, J. Hawkins, T. Lee, E. Kalina, J. Zhang, J. Dostalek, and P. Leighton ppt (2.1MB)
        • Status and Plans for the Development of a Unified Dropsonde Quality Assurance and Visualization Capability, ASPENV3 Michael L. Black (AOML/HRD), C. Martin, P. Flaherty, J. Almeida, and J. Latham ppt (16.2MB)
        • Advanced Applications of Monte Carlo Wind Probability Model: A Year 2 Joint Hurricane Testbed Project Update Mark DeMaria (NOAA/NESDIS), R. DeMaria, A. Schumacher, D. Brown, M. Brennan, R. Knabb, P. Santos, D. Sharp, J. Knaff, and S. Kidder pptx (4.6MB)
        • A New Secondary Eyewall Formation Index; Transition to Operations and Quantification of Associated Hurricane Intensity and Structure Changes Jim Kossin (NOAA/NCDC and CIMSS), M. Sitkowski, and C. Rozoff pptx (2.4MB)
        • ATCF Requirements, Intensity Consensus and Sea Heights Consistent with NHC Forecasts Charles R. Sampson (NRL), A. Schrader, E. Serra, P. Wittmann, H. Tolman, C. Sisko, C. Lauer, J. Schauer, J. Knaff, M. DeMaria, and A. Schumacher ppt (2.7MB)
        • Atlantic Warm Pool SST Bias in HYCOM Sang-Ki Lee (AOML and CIMSS) and C. Wang ppt (26.5MB)
        • Tools for Coordinating Aircraft During Hurricane Field Campaigns JRich Blakeslee (NASA), M. Goodman, J. Hall, M. He, P. Meyer, M. Garrett, K. Regner, H. Conover, and T. Smith ppt (6.3MB)
        • Final Plenary Session

          • WG/HWSOR: Action Item Review Dr. Edward Rappaport (NHC) Chairperson, WG/HWSOR ppt(391 KB)
          • Final Wrap-up Mr. Samuel P. Williamson, Federal Coordinator for Meteorology pptx (6.0MB)

          Posters For The 65th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

          • P01: Real-Time Radar Processing in the 2010 Hurricane Season and Plans for 2011 John F. Gamache (AOML/HRD)
          • P02: Real-Time Transmission of NOAA Tail Doppler Radar Data James Carswell (Remote Sensing Solutions), P. Chang, M. Mainelli, and J. Hill
          • P03: Improved Hurricane-Force Surface Winds and Rain Rate Retrievals with the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer James Carswell (Remote Sensing Solutions), P. Chang, Z. Jelenak, and S. Frasier
          • P04: Collocated ASOS and WSR-88D Depict Collapsing Core and Maximum Wind Gust at Melbourne, FL, in the Eyewall of Hurricane (1995) Keith G. Blackwell, U. of South Alabama
          • P05: Wide Swath Radar Altimeter (WSRA) Wave Spectra from Hurricane Ike compared with WaveWatch III Ivan PopStefanija (ProSensing) and E. Walsh
          • P06: Storm Surge Measurement Potential of the Wide Swath Radar Altimeter Ivan PopStefanija (ProSensing) and E. Walsh
          • P07: Direct Interpretation of COSMIC Refractivity Data in the Tropical Cyclone Environment Christopher M. Hill (Mississippi State University), P. Fitzpatrick, and Y. Lau
          • P08: Ocean’s Impact on the Intensity of Three Recent Typhoons (Fanapi, Malakas, and Megi) – Results from the ITOP Field Experiment Peter G. Black (SAIC/NRL) and I-I Lin
          • P09: Coupled Air-Sea Observations in Tropical Cyclones during ITOP/TCS10 Chiaying Lee (RSMAS/UM) and S. S. Chen
          • P10: Coming Soon: AMSU in GEO Bjorn Lambrigtsen (NASA JPL)
          • P11: Assimilating COSMIC GPS RO data for Investigating TC Genesis in the Eastern Atlantic Region Keren Rosado (FIT) and Sen Chiao
          • P12: Sensitivity of Air-Ocean-Wave Coupling on the Prediction of Hurricane Frances and Ivan Sue Chen (NRL), T. Smith, S. Gaberšek, T. Campbell, S. Wang, J. Doyle, and R. Allard
          • P13: Developing an Atlantic Ocean Initialization Based on the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) Product for the Operational GFDL and GFDN Hurricane Models Richard Yablonsky (URI), I. Ginis, S. Lee, and B. Thomas
          • P14: Spatial Verification of Tropical Cyclone Model Track and Intensity Forecasts Timothy Marchok (NOAA/GFDL) and A. Alpert
          • P15: Improving Ocean Model Performance in Coupled Hurricane Forecasts through Improved Initialization George R. Halliwell (NOAA/AOML), L. Shay, D. Willey, J. Brewster, B. Jaimes, and G. Goni
          • P16: Validation of Coupled Hurricane Atmosphere–Ocean Model (HyHWRF) Hyun-Sook Kim (NCEP/EMC), D. Iredell, Y. Kwon, L. Liu, Q. Liu, C. Lozano, J. O’Connor, J. Sims, V. Tallapragada, B. Tuleya, and Z. Zhan
          • P17: HWRF Model Diagnostic Improvements Janna O’Connor (NCEP/EMC) and V. Tallapragada
          • P18: Evaluating Experimental Models for Tropical Cyclone Forecasting in Support of the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) Paul A. Kucera (NCAR), B. Brown, L. Nance, C. Williams, K. Crosby, and M. Harrold
          • P19: A Highly Configurable Vortex Initialization Method for Tropical Cyclones Eric D. Rappin (RSMAS/UM), D. Nolan, and S. Majumdar
          • P20: Diagnosis of Operational Model Track Forecast Error for Hurricane Ike (2008) Michael J. Brennan (NCEP/NHC) and S. Majumdar
          • P21: An Update on the Status of FNMOC Projects to Improve Tropical Cyclone Forecasting Carey Dickerman (FNMOC), P. Wittmann, B. Sampson, and B. Ruston
          • P22: Improving the Assimilation of High-Resolution Satellite Wind Data into Mesoscale Prediction Models Ting-Chi Wu (RSMAS/UM), H. Liu, C. Velden, S. Majumdar, and J. Anderson
          • P23: Diagnosing Initial Condition Sensitivity of Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) and Hurricane Ike (2008) William A. Komaromi (RSMAS/UM), S. Majumdar, and E. Rappin
          • P24: Testing of a New Parametric Tropical Cyclone Wind Model for Implementation in the Gradient Wind Asymmetric Vortex Algorithm (GWAVA) to Drive Storm Surge Prediction Models Craig Mattocks (RSMAS/UM) and V. Wood
          • P25: Objective Diagnosis of the Eyewall Replacement Cycle in Mature Tropical Cyclones Elizabeth R. Sanabia (U.S Naval Academy) and N. Celone
          • P26: Climatology of Hot Towers in Tropical Cyclone Inner Cores and Rainbands Based on 12-year TRMM Data Cheng Tao (FIU) and H. Jiang
          • P27

            Quantitative Comparison of Precipitation Algorithms in Tropical Cyclones

            Joseph P. Zagrodnik (FIU) and H. Jiang

            P28

            Numerical Studies of Lower Boundary Forcing on Tropical Storm Fay (2008) over Southern Florida

            Travis L. Washington (FIT) and S. Chiao

            P29

            Vertical Wind Shear Impacts on Hurricane Structure Deduced from Airborne-Doppler and HWRF Databases

            Paul Reasor (NOAA/AOML/HRD), R. Rogers, S. Lorsolo, S. Gopalakrishnan, J. Gamache, and F. Marks

            P30

            Is Hurricane Rapid Intensification Possible from the Energy Released Inside of a Convective Burst?

            Owen A. Kelley (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center), J. B. Halverson, and J. Stout

            P31

            Hurricanes: Science and Society – An Online Resource Collaboratively Developed by Scientists, Education and Outreach Professionals, and Educators

            Isaac Ginis (URI), G. Scowcroft, R. M. Yablonsky, C. W. Knowlton, and H. Morin

            P32

            The Influence of Cyclones on the BP Oil Spill

            Pat Fitzpatrick (Mississippi State University), Y. Lau, C. Hill, and H. Karan

            P33

            > Intensity CONsensus (SATCON) Evaluation and Recent Changes

            Derrick Herndon (UW-CIMSS) and C. Velden

            P34

            A Methodology for Incorporating Hurricane Forecast Errors into Decision-Support Systems for Energy and Utility Companies

            Andrea Schumacher (CIRA) and S. M. Quiring

            P35

            What Might a Global TC Reanalysis Project Look Like?

            Paula Ann Hennon (STG, Inc.) and K. Knapp

            P36

            Getting the Surge Message Across

            Betty Hearn Morrow (SocResearch), J. Lazo, and J. Rhome