An Initial Inquiry into Meteorological Data Assimilation and Numerical Modeling Skills within the Federal Government

FCM-R29-2010

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The Nation requires credible and accurate weather, water, climate, and ocean information to minimize economic losses, enhance business and personal opportunities, save lives and property, and support national security. The Federal meteorological community’s environmental prediction capability has proven to be critical to addressing these needs. It has been well documented that over the last two decades, noticeable improvements in numerical weather prediction (NWP) have occurred. In fact, the 72-hour forecasts of today are as accurate as the 36-hour forecasts were 10–20 years ago. This doubling of forecast skill has been attributed to advances in data assimilation and numerical modeling, which has directly contributed to advancing operational forecast and warning products and services. Furthermore, recent advances in coupled atmosphere-ocean modeling and data assimilation have brought weather and short-term climate forecasting (STCF) more into alignment.
With data assimilation and numerical modeling playing such a pivotal role in advancing NWP and STCF, it is clear that these skills are vitally important to our Nation. This report highlights the anecdotal evidence and perceptions from data assimilation/numerical modeling experts concerning the loss of skill in these areas and the potential impact that this skill loss might have on sustaining and advancing NWP and STCF capability.