Forecasting. The predominant driver of the Program is the value of space weather forecasting services to the Nation. The accuracy, reliability, and timeliness of space weather specification and forecasting must become comparable to that of conventional weather forecasting. Early warning capabilities of impending dangerous conditions must become equally reliable to be valuable for mitigation purposes. The strengthening of forecasting efforts includes modernization of facilities; implementation of new models and other analysis and forecast techniques; improved education and training; improved production, design, and dissemination of forecast products; and improved communication with the users of the services. New operational models, instrumentation, and techniques will be evaluated according to their potential to improve forecasting services.
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Research in the initial phase of the Program will include intensive efforts in understanding the fundamental physical processes that affect the state of the sun, magnetosphere, ionosphere, and atmosphere, with a focus on answering research questions that impede progress in improving forecasting capability. Radiative, dynamical, electrical, and chemical coupling between different regions will be studied using data from existing ground- and space-based instrumentation. Greater effectiveness will arise from the emphasis on physical measurements rather than the conventional indices. Theoretical investigations in these areas will help to define the needed observations and will aid the development of operational models.
Observations. The Program will build on existing capabilities and include a determination of new data needs and the value of current data. As the Program progresses, observations in support of research and forecasting are expected to grow, as critical parameters for forecasting are identified, measurement techniques are defined, and new space- and ground-based platforms are developed. The initial focus will be on better coverage of data-void or data-sparse regions, and on the deployment of systems that will provide data with appropriate accuracy, resolution, and timeliness. Because instrumentation development is an evolutionary process, the Program will emphasize rapid exploitation of observational capabilities and efficient communication between data analysts, researchers, and instrument designers.
Modeling efforts for specifying and predicting the space environment have been under way for several years, but operational benefits have not yet been realized. The Program will coordinate these modeling efforts and guide integration of the models to ensure their consistency and optimal performance. A primary goal is to develop first-principle, physics-based specification and forecast models covering the forecast period out to 72 hours for solar events and 48 hours for near-Earth space weather phenomena. Evaluation of these models will be conducted in close collaboration with research and observation efforts and with regard to user requirements. Gaps and deficiencies in these models will be identified and used to set requirements for future models.
Educational activities will be aimed at students at all grade levels as well as Space Weather forecasters, customers, and the general public.
Education activities supported by the Program will enhance public awareness of space weather and its impacts; will help ensure a sufficient supply of educated scientists and engineers to maintain expertise in all space weather related fields; and will improve training of forecasters, observers, and system operators. An educated public and commercial sector will be better able to utilize space environment forecasting services; student research will supply fresh ideas to explore; and knowledgeable government officials and the media will help realize the socioeconomic benefits.
Technology transition and integration processes must be improved and focused to facilitate the transfer of tools, techniques, and knowledge from the research or commercial communities to the operational forecasting activities. This effort, now often a bottleneck, is critical to the success of the Program. Innovative means must be explored to establish a dynamic process for technology exploitation and transition to improve forecasting capability, utilize all relevant research, and rapidly realize benefits.