CHAPTER 7

Program Management

The National Space Weather Program (NSWP) will be implemented by scientists, engineers, and technicians in government, academia, and industry. The program is intended to build on existing capabilities and to establish an aggressive, coordinated process to set national priorities, focus agency efforts, and leverage resources to gain the biggest return. Organization and planning of the program will require a structure guaranteeing effective feedback and communication between the various communities involved. Points of contact and sources of information to facilitate this interaction are given in Appendix B.

This chapter covers management structure, metrics to track progress toward achieving operational goals, and agency participation in the program.

7.1 Background

In 1993, members of the space science community contacted the National Science Foundation (NSF) and raised the issue of improving the Nation's ability to specify and forecast space weather. In response, NSF organized a meeting at which representatives from government, industry, and academia met and discussed the current status of space weather research and operational systems. These discussions highlighted deficits in current capabilities and suggested that much could be gained by better coordination of efforts across Federal agencies. Other issues presented at the meeting included the limitations imposed by budget constraints and the reluctance of industry to reveal problems with current systems. It became clear that an overarching program to coordinate space weather activities would help to more effectively apply limited resources, and that such a program should be overseen by an organization composed of only government agencies so that industrial participants would be more willing to identify problems with existing systems.

Because the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research, more briefly known as the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology (OFCM), administers multiagency programs, it was selected as the focal point for developing the space weather program. Furthermore, the Committee for Space Environment Forecasting (CSEF) was already in place within the OFCM structure. Planning for a space weather program represented a logical extension of the responsibilities of that committee. CSEF appointed the Working Group for the National Space Weather Program (WG/NSWP) and charged it with developing a strategic plan. Work began in the summer of 1994 involving representatives from NSF, Department of Defense (DoD), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Department of Energy (DOE), and Department of Interior (DOI). In parallel with these efforts, the Working Group recommended that a Program Council be created to provide high-level, multiagency oversight for the emerging program. The Working Group developed a draft charter for the Program Council, and on August 4, 1995, the Program Council met for the first time. At that meeting, the charter was adopted and the Strategic Plan was approved. The Program Council then directed the Working Group to develop an implementation plan for the NSWP. This process began with the identification of customer requirements for space weather services. Once these requirements were specified, representatives from the research community met to develop a road map laying out research, modeling, and observational requirements that would lead to achievement of the goals. An early draft of this Implementation Plan was released for community comments in December 1995, and this current version was presented to the Program Council in January 1997.

7.2 Management Structure

The management structure for NSWP, organized within the OFCM includes the National Space Weather Program Council (NSWPC) and the Committee for Space Weather (CSW).

7.2.1 National Space Weather Program Council (NSWPC)

NSWPC is a multiagency group designed to provide oversight and direction to the integrated process of setting national priorities, focusing agency efforts, and leveraging existing resources. It was established with the approval of the Federal Committee for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (FCMSSR) in December 1994. NSWPC establishes policy, coordinates interagency efforts, and approves interagency agreements developed within the scope of the program. It also defines and coordinates the implementation of the NSWP. The NSWPC ensures that common needs are met and the interests of each agency are addressed. Member agencies retain responsibility for planning, programming, and budgeting their own resources to meet agency obligations to the NSWP.

NSWPC consists of designated representatives from Federal agencies involved in space weather activities. The representatives are the official spokespersons for their agencies on matters such as program scope, requirements, and resource commitments. Agencies involved are DoD, Department of Commerce (DOC), DOI, and DOE, NASA, and NSF.

7.2.2 Committee for Space Weather (CSW)

WG/NSWP was established under CSEF to establish the NSWP by developing (1) a charter for NSWPC, (2) the NSWP Strategic Plan, and (3) the NSWP Implementation Plan. With the completion of these tasks, the NSWP has become a viable enterprise, and restructuring of OFCM bodies working in the space weather arena has become appropriate. NSWP addresses issues encompassing and considerably broader than the traditional role of CSEF. With this in mind, NSWPC has recommended to the Interdepartmental Committee for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (ICMSSR), CSEF's parent organization, that a new group be formed to absorb the roles of WG/NSWP and CSEF. The newly constituted CSW will be aligned under NSWPC and function as a steering group responsible for tracking NSWP progress, identifying problems that threaten to delay or interrupt the program, and recommending corrective actions to the Program Council. Like the Program Council, the CSW is a multi-agency organization. It is composed of representatives from the DOC, DoD, NASA, DOI, DOE, and NSF.

7.2.3 Coordination with U.S. Research Community

The Implementation Plan will be a living document with annual updates. The basis for the updates will be regular and open communications with researchers, operators and customers. In particular the research community will be updated and comments will be solicited at both annual meetings of the American Geophysical Union (AGU)and at the annual workshops of Coupling Energetics and Dynamics of Atmospheric Regions (CEDAR), Geospace Environment Modeling (GEM), and Solar Heliospheric and Interplanetary Environment (SHINE).

A very important aspect of implementing the research plan is an annual multiagency research opportunity. In FY 1996, NSF and the DoD made $1.3 million available to augment space weather research in key areas. This funding is expected to continue annually and grow both in dollar value and in number of participating agencies. To help in determining the research areas of critical need for the future announcements of opportunity, the National Academy of Science's Committee on Solar Terrestrial Research (CSTR) will annually review past progress and make recommendations to CSW. On the basis of those recommendations, as well as the comments and insights of the community, CSW will formulate the updated research announcement of opportunity.

CSTR will also conduct a comprehensive review of the progress of the research program after approximately 5 years.

7.2.4 Non-Federal Involvement

NSWP is a cooperative effort within several agencies of the Federal government. However, achieving the goals of the program will require the participation of a variety of entities outside the Federal government, including universities, research institutes, laboratories, and businesses. Indeed, the role of the Federal government, through OFCM's CSW and cooperating agencies, is largely one of management and coordination. Several areas provide opportunities for participation by non-Federal entities.

Requirements. Requirements for space weather support should be forwarded to the appropriate agency responsible for providing support. DoD agencies should request support from Air Force Space Command. Other government and private agencies should request support directly from the Space Environment Center (SEC). Support requirements that exceed the current state of the art should be stated as early as possible. See Appendix B for addresses.

Research Opportunities. In addition to the NSWP targeted research opportunities mentioned in section 7.2.3, other research opportunities are expected to be available through the Federal agencies that support the program. Although these opportunities will not be explicitly tied to the NSWP, they will support the broad goals of the program and, in many cases, specific objectives. From DoD, opportunities will be available through the Air Force Office of Scientific Research and the Office of Naval Research. DOC, through NOAA's Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, will offer opportunities, as will NASA's Office of Space Sciences. On a more limited basis DOE will offer some opportunities through its Solar Terrestrial Research Program within the Office of Basic Energy Science.

Rapid Prototyping. Specific plans for rapid prototyping are not yet in place. However, it is anticipated that opportunities will exist for offering maturing technology for transfer into operational applications. This will involve nominating appropriate models for transfer and participating to some extent in the rapid prototyping process. The extent of developer participation in rapid prototyping will depend on the processes developed and agreements between the developer and the operations center.

Producing Tailored Products. Not all space weather support requirements will be met by products issued by the SEC. Some operators will require very detailed forecasts for specific weather elements at specific places and times. An opportunity will exist to access SEC products, tailor them to customers' specific requirements, and disseminate them to operators. This is essentially a business opportunity. Although this type of effort can anticipate that it will receive cooperation as appropriate from Federal agencies, it should not expect to receive Federal support.

7.3 Metrics

Metrics are standards of measurement used to evaluate program progress. When applied to a complex system such as the NSWP, metrics allow managers to objectively identify problem areas and serve as the catalyst for corrective actions. Metrics can be qualitative measures of merit or quantitative indicators that can be compared with contractual or historical standards or goals for projected performance.

Major milestones for the NSWP involve implementation of operational models with observations available to support them. The timelines for implementation of these models are given in Figures 4-2, 4-3, and 4-4. These detailed actions (research, model development, observations, etc.) lead to the major milestones shown in Figure 4-1. CSW will establish milestones for the detailed actions and determine the critical path for each of the three first-generation operational models shown in Figures 4-2 through 4-4. CSW must establish communication with the agencies, institutions, and individuals developing the components (including research) that constitute the NSWP, to ensure collection of the appropriate metric data.

It is important to clarify what metrics are, and are not, especially associated with university or laboratory research. First and foremost, metrics are tools to help managers gauge progress. Metrics are not focused on judging the "quality" of research or ability of researchers; peer review is still the best tool for making these quality judgments. CSW recognizes that the progress of research, especially basic research, is not easily measured by linear timelines or checklists. Research that is progressing at a slower pace than expected is not necessarily bad research. However, CSW must continually monitor progress so as to detect deviations from projected timelines and make appropriate adjustments to schedules of other related elements making up the target milestone.

When a delay or failure threatens a particular milestone, CSW will determine the source of the problem and develop a plan of action. If the action plan requires redistribution of funds or significant milestone adjustment, CSW will recommend that the Program Council meet to review the issues and approve the action plan.

7.4 Agency Roles and Responsibilities in the National Space Weather Program

DOC (represented by NOAA), DOD, NASA, DOI, DOE, and NSF recognize common interests in space weather observing and forecasting. Aware of the need for prudent employment of available resources and the avoidance of duplication in providing these services and support for agency mission responsibilities, the cooperating agencies have sought to satisfy the need for a common service program under the NSWP. This section provides information on how the participating agencies plan to contribute to the program. The general information on each agency provided in the following subsections is further detailed in Table 7-1, which indicates which space weather domains (from Table 2-2) the agencies will address, and in what areas they intend to focus their efforts.

NOAA and the Air Force have separate, distinct, statutory roles in providing space weather observations, forecast and warning services, and data archival to the civil sector, DoD, and other Federal agencies. NOAA, through the SEC, provides centralized space weather support to non-DoD government users, (e.g., NASA) and to the general public. The United States Air Force (USAF), through the 50th Weather Squadron (50 WS), provides unique and sometimes classified support to all DoD users. To avoid duplication, the two agencies share responsibilities to produce certain space weather databases, warnings, and forecast products. Both agencies also support space weather research.

The 50 WS and SEC provide cooperative support and backup for each other in accordance with existing agreements. USAF assigns personnel to Operating Location A, 50 WS, collocated with SEC, to assist in the operations of SEC and to participate in activities of mutual interest and benefit to the USAF and NOAA.

Table 7-1. Agency Participation Matrix

Organization codes: 1=DOC, 2=DoD, 3=DOE, 4=DOI, 5=NASA, 6=NSF

NASA and NSF play key roles in advancing operational space weather support through research. Both agencies deploy systems that collect data to support research focused on improving our understanding of space weather processes. They also manage much of that research.

DOI and DOE participate by collecting data that, while supporting their missions, contribute to the operational space weather database. They also support limited research related to those data.

7.4.1 Department of Commerce (DOC)

DOC's NOAA is responsible for monitoring and forecasting the near-Earth space environment for nonmilitary applications. NOAA's programs support governmental, commercial, educational, and scientific communities. Activities focus on satellite instrumentation, data assimilation, environmental forecasting, and research and numerical modeling. NOAA and DoD cooperate on programs of mutual interest.

Currently, NOAA operates space environment instruments on Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES), and polar-orbiting satellites to monitor solar emissions and in situplasma fluxes. In the future, NOAA will operate the joint DOC-DoD National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS). In addition, NOAA has proposed a solar wind monitoring program that would support the NSWP.

NOAA's SEC and National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) receive, process, analyze, and assimilate space weather data collected by worldwide networks of satellite and ground-based instruments. SEC is responsible for real-time and operational data. NGDC is responsible for the national and World Data Center archives. Future data activities will focus on greater spatial coverage of relevant parameters from national and international partners.

Nowcasts and forecasts are routinely prepared and distributed by SEC. Numerical analyses and model simulations are conducted by SEC and NGDC. In support of the NSWP, SEC proposes to test, evaluate and incorporate superior algorithms to forecast the space environment.

Research and modeling activities at SEC and NGDC include analysis of in situ measurements and development of numerical models conducted by government scientists and international visitors. In support of the NSWP, NOAA has proposed to test and evaluate physical models developed by academia, government, and industry under routine, near-real-time conditions.

7.4.2 Department of Defense (DoD)

DoD will continue to support observing, forecasting, modeling, and research efforts toward supporting operational assets in the near-Earth space. Through 50 WS, DoD will continue to monitor data from various ground sites and space-based observation platforms to provide warning, observing, and forecasting support for both military and civilian assets in conjunction with SEC.

In support of the NSWP, modeling techniques will be developed by the USAF Phillips Laboratory (PL) and various contracting agencies for use at 50 WS. PL will continue to be the focal point for space weather models for DoD; models from outside agencies will be validated and transitioned with the help of PL.

DoD will support research into understanding space weather phenomena, particularly in the near-Earth regions. The department recognizes that knowledge of solar and interplanetary phenomena is critical to forecasting in the magnetosphere and ionosphere, and it continues to advocate for research in those areas as well. Efforts to develop sensors and spacecraft to measure the space environment will be leveraged with other agencies to build and deploy effective platforms. Data from these systems will then be assimilated into the operational models and archived for climatological studies.

7.4.3 National Science Foundation (NSF)

NSF will support basic research in solar-terrestrial sciences, including the sun, solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere. NSF will support theoretical and observational research with the goals of increasing fundamental understanding of space environment processes and improving space weather predictive capability. The research will include the development and operation of ground-based space environment monitoring instrumentation; the development of ionospheric, thermospheric, and magnetospheric specification models; and the analysis of post-event databases. The worldwide array of NSF-sponsored instruments, observatories, and facilities will provide vital ground-based measurements in coordination with space missions sponsored by other agencies.

Research areas of emphasis will be (1) solar region evolution and eruptive events, (2) interplanetary transport, (3) magnetospheric physics and dynamics, (4) ionospheric physics and dynamics, and (5) upper atmosphere physics and dynamics. Knowledge of the processes that are fundamental to each of these areas will be enhanced by a multi-disciplinary approach to investigating the basic mechanisms through which these areas interact.

7.4.4 National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)

NASA will continue its traditional role of research in the physics of the solar-terrestrial system. This research program is carried out under the theme, the "Sun-Earth Connection," which seeks to explore and understand as one system the dynamics of the sun and its interactions with Earth and other planetary bodies and with the interstellar medium. Key questions addressed relevant to space weather include the following: What causes solar variability? How does the sun and its variability affect Earth and other planetary space environments? The Sun-Earth Connection uses the solar system as a laboratory to understand basic plasma physical processes such as the acceleration of particles to high energies and generation of intense radiation belts or plasma enhancements, processes that can affect electronic and biological systems exposed to the space environment.

The ongoing and future space science flight programs of NASA and its partners are making, and will continue to make, critical contributions to space weather research. The International Solar Terrestrial Physics (ISTP) Program is providing new experimental and theoretical advances in solar-terrestrial physics. The ISTP missions (GEOTAIL, WIND, POLAR, Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)), and the complementary missions (Equator-S, Yohkoh, Fast Auroral Snapshot (FAST), IMP-8, Solar Anomalous Magnetospheric Particle Experiment (SAMPEX)), along with missions under development (Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE), Transitions Region and Coronal Explorer (TRACE), and Imager for Magnetopause to Aurora Global Exploration (IMAGE)), and the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Magnetosphere Energetics and Dynamics Mission (TIMED) will significantly advance the state of the art of knowledge in solar-terrestrial physics. ACE will provide the first 24-hour-per-day broadcast of real time solar wind data to be used for space weather forecasting by the DoD and NOAA. NASA is a partner with USAF in the development of the Solar Mass Ejection Imager (SMEI). Future missions under consideration include a solar stereo mission that could provide images of coronal mass ejections directed toward the Earth and arrays of microsats to provide multipoint measurements in the magnetosphere.

NASA missions are designed to improve and advance empirical understanding of events and conditions in space; to develop and use new technology; to establish proof of concept and the value of new observational methods in space (e.g., energetic neutral particle imaging of the magnetosphere); to develop a database that determines the empirical nature of space weather conditions; and generally to observe, interpret, and understand the causes of and to predict the variable particle and electromagnetic radiations that emanate from the sun and affect the space environment of Earth and other planets. Much of the Sun-Earth Connection research grants program also contributes to developing basic principles and methods by which space weather may be understood and predicted.

7.4.5 Department of Interior (DOI)

DOI participates in the NSWP through its United States Geological Survey (USGS), which operates a series of geomagnetic observatories and participates in worldwide collection and real-time exchange of geomagnetic data. It provides these data to USAF and NOAA operational centers for determination of geomagnetic indices to support warning and forecasting, and to NGDC for archiving to support research. DOI also conducts research in geomagnetic and electrical fields, particularly in how they relate to the structure of Earth's core and mantle.

In the future, DOI plans to expand its network of geomagnetic observatories. In the near term, expansion will provide data from land areas from which data have not been available in the past. In the longer term, USGS plans to organize an effort to collect geomagnetic data over the broad ocean areas. Research conducted or supported by DOI will continue to be focused in areas where it is concentrated today, but will evolve to exploit the increase in the number of geomagnetic observations available and the changing distribution of spatial coverage.

7.4.6 Department of Energy (DOE)

DOE will continue its ongoing program to supply energetic particle and plasma sensors at geosynchronous and Global Positioning System (GPS) orbits and to support the analysis and distribution of those data in a timely manner. In addition, DOE should be considered as a candidate agency to provide similar environmental sensors for other future magnetospheric monitoring tasks within the NSWP.

DOE's Los Alamos National Laboratory has supplied plasma monitors for many NASA solar wind missions. Through Los Alamos, DOE will provide real-time solar wind data from the ACE spacecraft, as well as the expertise necessary to support ACE. DOE should also be considered as a candidate agency to provide sensors for future NSWP solar wind spacecraft to follow ACE.

Los Alamos carries out an extensive program of space physics research that is sponsored by both DOE and NASA and that includes data analysis and interpretation as well as space plasma theory and modeling. DOE will continue to support this activity as a contribution to the research and modeling components of NSWP activity.

7.5 Coordination with the International Space Environment Service

The International Space Environment Service (ISES)--formerly the International URSIgram and World Days Service (IUWDS)-- is the organization through which the United States participates in international, real-time exchange of data and forecasts for the space environment. ISES consists of regional warning centers in major areas of the world. The warning centers serve their own regions by collecting data and exchanging it for data from other warning centers. Each warning center provides daily forecast advice to the World Warning Agency, operated by NOAA as a part of the SEC in Boulder. Each day, the Boulder center issues a consensus set of forecasts and summaries of activity back to the regional warning centers. Data collected in near-real time include geomagnetic and ionospheric observations as well as other solar-terrestrial data. ISES data exchange program is currently evolving as various centers convert their data services to use of the Internet. The ISES plans that various regional centers can assume responsibility for some part of the effort of providing forecasts and alerts. ISES is also evolving as a vehicle for arranging tracking of satellites such as ACE. DOC will work with the regional warning centers to arrange for additional collection of data needed for the NSWP and for cooperation in implementing improved space weather services.

ISES organizes a series of international workshops to evaluate requirements and methods of improving solar-terrestrial predictions. These are held at approximately 5-year intervals and cover methods of observing and forecasting activity from the sun through the interplanetary space and into the neutral atmosphere, ionosphere, and magnetosphere. The last workshop was held in Japan in 1996. The next one is expected in about 2000 or 2001.

As a way of improving the relevance of the workshops, ISES is considering a proposal to conduct coordinated international campaigns to test improved prediction techniques, with the involvement of scientists who have developed the techniques and of the end users (forecasters and customers). If the proposal is accepted, SEC's Space Weather Operations is planning to be involved as a central forecast center in the prediction campaigns in several ways, including the coordination of calling the campaigns, the provision of data, and the actual execution of the campaigns from the perspective of forecasting and research and development. These campaigns will provide a window for international participation with U.S. participation in the NSWP.

Table of Contents

Chapter 6

Appendix A