Figure 4-1. NSWP Operational Model Development
CHAPTER 4
Timelines and Near-term Emphasis
4.1 Timelines
The observations and models described in the previous chapter and Appendix A have been combined into three overall 10-year timelines: 1) The Solar/Solar Wind Timeline; 2) The Magnetosphere Timeline; and 3) The Ionosphere/Thermosphere Timeline.
The overall strategy for the three timelines is shown in Figure 4-1. Operational models for the solar/solar wind, magnetosphere, and ionosphere/thermosphere are developed in parallel. Expected operational results of the development in each area is indicated by color coding according to the scheme used in Table 2-1 to show capabilities to meet operational requirements for providing warnings, nowcasts, forecasts, and post-analysis. Because the magnetosphere is influenced both by the ionosphere/thermosphere system and the sun and solar wind, this model provides the core to which the other models will eventually be linked. As indicated in Figure 4-1, we expect the linkage to the ionosphere/thermosphere model to occur first. Later, the merged magnetosphere/ionosphere/thermosphere model will be coupled to the solar/solar wind model to produce the final seamless specification and forecast system. Note that the present magnetosphere model is already coupled to the solar wind as an input driver, however the ultimate goal is to couple the predictive models to achieve true forecasting capabilities.
The individual timelines for model development in the three domains are shown in Figures 4-2, 4-3, and 4-4. The horizontal axis of the figures is meant to indicate a time scale of approximately ten years. In the top row we indicate when each of the models may transition to the operational forecasting centers. Beneath these milestones, we show the observations we expect to be available as input to these models. Only operational sensors are shown, meaning that they have or will have satisfied strict requirements as to data continuity and reliability. The third row of the information shows the research-grade models to be developed as precursors to the operational models. The timeline shows the approximate time that these models will be available for validation and test. At appropriate times, successful models will be transitioned to operational status. The bottom row in the figures shows the observations that we expect to be available for use in scientific studies and model development and test. These observations are distinct from those in the second row in that they are not expected to provide routine measurements that can be used in an operational scenario. Nevertheless, they are critical to achieving the scientific breakthroughs necessary to reach the operational milestones. Underlying the entire process, but not indicated in the figures, is a broad and continuous research effort aimed at acquiring a deep understanding of the physical processes that drive the space weather system. The success of the space weather program depends on a sustained effort in the study of these basic processes.
Figure
4-1. NSWP Operational Model Development
4.2 Near-term Emphasis
The timelines shown above indicate the long term milestones that must be achieved in reaching the goals of the National Space Weather Program. In addition to these long term goals, there are also a number of near-term objectives. These near term objectives will be reviewed and updated annually.
Physical Understanding. Initially, several broad research areas will be targeted for emphasis. These represent significant gaps in present understanding and need to be addressed early in the Program. They are as follows:
· understanding and prediction of processes affecting solar activity and solar wind, such as coronal mass ejections and solar flares.
· the origin and energization of magnetospheric plasma.
· the triggering and temporal evolution of substorms and storms.
· the processes that govern spatial distribution of ionization.
· the evolution of ionospheric irregularities and scintillations.
· thermospheric dynamics and its coupling to the ionosphere.
Models. There is a critical need for model development, validation and testing in all areas of the space weather system. Near term emphasis will be placed on the following:
· validation and testing of existing models.
· continued development of research models that are nearly ready to transition to operations.
· development and application of numerical methods for event forecasting.
Observations. In the observational requirements, it is important to continue and improve existing ground-based networks for solar, magnetic, and ionospheric observations. Similarly, space-based measurements must be continued, both for routine observations and to address critical problems in understanding the space weather system. In particular, emphasis should be placed on the following:
· maintaining ground-based observing systems such as magnetometers and radiowave and optical solar remote sensing capabilities.
· maintaining sensors on polar orbiting and geosynchronous satellites.
· progressing with National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Solar Connections satellites (Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Magnetosphere Energetics and Dynamics Mission (TIMED), Imager for Magnetopause to Aurora Global Exploration (IMAGE),and High Energy Solar Imager (HESI)).
· taking advantage of data from existing satellites such as International Solar-Terrestrial Physics (ISTP), Fast Auroral Snapshot (FAST) and Midcourse Space Experiment (MSX).
· establishing real time data link with Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite.
· deploying an operational solar X-ray imaging instrument.
· establishing a new ground-based facility within the magnetic polar cap.
Technology Transfer. The challenges of technology transfer must be addressed very early in the program. The concept of rapid prototyping shows promise as a means by which research quality models can be prepared for transfer to the operational arena The early implementation of rapid prototyping centers for the testing and validation of models using realistic data streams will be vigorously investigated.
Education. Another important area of early concentration in the Program is customer education. There must be a well-defined procedure by which the scientific community, the forecast community, and the customers can interact and exchange information. A regular series of workshops with appropriately selected attendees is an ideal vehicle to facilitate this type of coordination.
Figure 4-2 Solar/Wind Timeline
Figure 4-3 Magnetosphere Timeline
Figure 4-4 Ionosphere/Thermosphere Timeline
