CHAPTER 2

Capabilities, Goals, and Strategy

2.1 Background

Space weather services are currently provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Space Environment Center (SEC) and the United States Air Force (USAF) 50th Weather Squadron (50 WS), both in Colorado. The former serves civilian customers, while the latter serves the needs of the Department of Defense(DoD). At these centers, forecasting space weather is approached in much the same way as forecasting tropospheric weather. Data are collected, checked for quality, analyzed, fed into models, and displayed graphically. Forecasters mentally integrate numerical products, images, and other analyses, using experience, physical understanding, and empirical tools. A "most likely" scenario emerges of what the forecaster believes the state of the environment will evolve to from its present state. If a significant event (severe weather) is forecast, it must be assigned onset time, intensity, duration, and, if possible, how it will affect specific regions of the environment.

In assessing present capabilities we distinguish between four different types of space weather products--warnings, nowcasts, forecasts, and post-analysis--as follows:

A warning is given for an event that has the potential to harm satellites, equipment, and humans in the near-Earth space environment or on the ground. Warnings apply to phenomena that require a customer to take action in order to protect assets. The Earth-bound analogy is a warning issued for thunderstorms, tornadoes, etc. The key to a warning is the ability to specify when an event will occur, how intense it will be, and how long it will last. Warnings cover the 0- to 24-hour period and are based on observations of causal events (like solar flares), observations of actual events (such as a geomagnetic storm onset), or extrapolations of trends (such as increasing proton fluxes). Most warnings are issued immediately (within minutes) upon observation of a certain event or condition.

A nowcast begins with a specification of current conditions, typically based on observations and models that assimilate data and fill the gaps, then projects those conditions into the near future. The time range for this projection is usually slightly shorter than the time required to update the observations. Nowcasts are issued on a regular basis and may include a warning if an event is in progress.

The forecast differs from the nowcast in the timeframe it covers and the techniques involved in producing it. Short-term forecasts cover the period from 6 hours to several days. Mid-term forecasts extend these forecasts out to several months. Long-range forecasts can cover some parameters of the solar cycle out through 10 years. Short-term and mid-term forecasts provide general conditions and may also include warning-type events, but they are not intended to provide the timing accuracy necessary to give the fidelity that a customer may want for taking protective action. They are issued on a daily schedule that allows time for the full use of all computing tools, albeit within a rigid timeline. Longer range solar cycle forecasts are issued monthly and computed automatically.

Post-analysis is used to identify the space weather factors that may have contributed to operational anomalies of systems affected by space weather. Observations are critical for analyzing the state of the environment when the anomaly occurred. Immediate post-analysis is required to identify whether observed anomalous behavior of a system was caused by space weather or by other factors such as mechanical failure, engineering design problems, software errors, etc. Post-analysis is a valuable tool in providing input into improvements in engineering designs of systems.

Although specification is not a product, it is the starting point for the products described above. Specification refers to the fusion of all available observations into a coherent and realistic representation of the state of the environment at the time of the observations. This step is critical in order to accurately initialize predictive models, perform after-the-fact analyses, and provide the forecaster with a reliable picture of present conditions. The ability to nowcast is only as good as the quality and timelines of the observational data received and the effectiveness of models in fusing the data into coherent representations of the environment.

2.2 Current Capabilities

Table 2-1 illustrates current capabilities in each space weather region to warn, nowcast, forecast, and provide post-analysis products for space weather events. Red means there is no capability to meet the requirements for the events in the given region, yellow/red indicates very limited capability, and yellow means some capability short of meeting operational requirements. No areas are coded green because user-specified needs cannot be met in any area at the present time.

Table 2-1. Current Capabilities Based on Requirements

Below we summarize the current capabilities in each of the four product areas:

Warnings. Very little capability exists to warn for space weather events. Causal solar events can be detected in real time, but warnings based on these events lack sufficient reliability for immediate mitigation actions and do not provide useful leadtime or information on magnitude and duration of the event. Capability is strongest (albeit very limited) in the solar/interplanetary region because of the 24-hour observing system of solar observatories.

Nowcasts. Limited nowcasting capability based on rudimentary models exists at operational centers. However, the models offer little capability beyond information available from empirical methods and climatology. Capability is best when data to initialize the models are received in a timely manner.

Forecasts. Forecasting capability suffers from the same weaknesses as warning capability, and in addition the challenge is greater because forecasting requires longer leadtimes. This in turn requires a more complete understanding of both the solar events that drive space weather and the way the space environment reacts to those events.

Post-Analyses. Current capabilities are the strongest in support of post-analysis requirements; however, significant deficiencies still exist. The relatively strong capability in this area derives from the fact that some post-analyses are not required in real time. This allows the analyst to gather data that may not have been immediately available to operators and to assimilate it at leisure.

In summary, these limited capabilities come from a basic understanding of space weather combined with a limited observation base and rudimentary computer models. However, they lack the necessary accuracy and four-dimensional detail to meet operational requirements.

2.3 Operational Goals

The goals of the National Space Weather Program (NSWP) are listed in Table 2-2, which shows the parameters that must be specified and forecast in 15 space weather domains. These were established by the civilian and DoD communities in response to customer operational support requirements. Some of these parameters, the neutral atmospheric temperature, for example, are used to drive forecast models. Others, such as the occurrence of coronal mass ejections, are needed to enhance warning capabilities. This list is subject to change as the NSWP proceeds. It will be reviewed and updated periodically as research improves the physical understanding of space weather and as customer needs change.

Table 2-2. Space Weather Domains and Goals

2.4 What Needs to be Done

Several advancements must take place so that forecasting abilities can be substantially improved. Some, albeit limited, progress can be made without improving our understanding of the physical mechanisms that generate space weather. This will require examining and applying data to develop or improve statistical or empirical models. However, in parallel, as our understanding of the space environment improves, physics-based research models must be developed and modified as part of the process of improving our understanding. These models will express what we have learned, serve as a test bed for new concepts, and tell us where we still need more work before our understanding is sufficient to meet operational goals. When our understanding of physical processes is satisfactory, we must place operational sensors in the field and transition our research models into operational models that can run on simple computer systems, assimilate operational data, and produce results within operational timelines.

This overall process is expressed in Figure 2-1, NSWP Roadmap. Research will be conducted in the following three areas: physical understanding, model development, and observations. Crosscutting these areas are the three regions of the space environment--solar/solar wind, magnetosphere, and ionosphere/thermosphere. Chapter 3 summarizes the research that needs to be accomplished to meet NSWP goals. Appendix A provides a more detailed description of the research objectives and background information for each region of the space environment. Chapter 4 presents timelines for achieving the research goals.

Figure 2-1. NSWP Roadmap

When the research has provided sufficiently mature knowledge, the new information will be adapted for operational use through a well-planned and -executed technology transfer (T²) process, which has as its core a Rapid Prototyping Center concept. This process is described in Chapter 5. The result will be a series of physics-based models that are coupled to account for the interactions between processes in the three regions of the environment. These operational models will be supported by observations from operational sensors, which again will come from the results of research on sensor requirements and technology, and a planned program of technology transfer.

The suite of new models, supported by deployed sensors, will provide a description of the environment sufficient to support production of tailored products. These products will be designed to address the specific needs of customers--commerce, defense, or society as a whole--at a given location and time. The Air Force will issue tailored products to support DoD. SEC will use the model output to provide warnings and alerts to civilian users, and will otherwise provide model output to allow private-sector users to generate their own tailored products.

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