67th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

Tropical Cyclone Research Forum


Theme - Tropical Cyclone Research: Our Vision for the Future

March 5th 7th 2013

NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction College Park, MD

(And as a Webinar)


Opening Session

Conference Opening

Mr. Samuel P. Williamson

Federal Coordinator for Meteorology

Keynote Address

Congressman Chaka Fattah, Ranking Member of the Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice, Science and related agencies (CJS)

Welcoming Remarks

Dr. Louis Uccellini, Director, National Weather Service

Invited Comments

Acting Secretary of Commerce Dr. Rebecca Blank (invited)

Setting the Stage for the Forum

Mr. Samuel P. Williamson

Federal Coordinator for Meteorology

Panel Session:  The Emergency Response to Hurricane Sandy

Moderator:  Mr. Bryan Norcross, The Weather Channel Hurricane Specialist


- Captain Thomas Scardino, Executive Officer, Emergency Management Section, New Jersey Homeland Security Branch

- Mr. Richard A. French, New York State Office of Emergency Management  



 Session 1:   Tropical Cyclone Research: Federal Agency Overview

Introduction of Panel Moderator

Dr. Paul D. Try, Senior Vice President Science and Technology Corporation

Senior Leader Panel:  Tropical Cyclone Research: The View from the Top

Moderator:  John D. Murphy, Director, Office of Science and Technology, National Weather Service


- Dr. Jack Kaye, Associate Director and Research and Analysis Lead, Earth Science Division, National Aeronautics and Space Administration

- Dr. Ronald Ferek, Program Officer, Marine Meteorology Program, Office of Naval Research

- Dr. Frank Marks, Jr., Director, NOAA's Hurricane Research Division

- Dr. Alexander E. (Sandy) MacDonald, Director of NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory and Deputy Assistant Administrator for Research Laboratories and Cooperative Institutes

- Dr. Michael C. Morgan, Division Director of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences, National Science Foundation



Session 2:    Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research

Session Leaders

Dr. Frank Marks, Co-Chair WG/TCR and Director Hurricane Research Division (NOAA/AOML)

Dr. Ronald Ferek, Co-Chair WG/TCR and Program Officer Marine Meteorology Program (ONR)

Comparison of the 2010 and 2012 Snapshots of Tropical Cyclone Research and Development


Frank Marks (AOML/HRD) and Ronald Ferek (ONR)


Session 3a: The Navy's Model Development and Improvement Program/Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP): Supporting Talks

Session Leaders

Dr. Ron Ferek and Dr. Frank Marks

The Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project: Recent Operational Implementation

Bob Gall (NWS), Fred Toepfer (NWS), Frank Marks (AOML/HRD), and Ed Rappaport (NHC)

Recent COAMPS-TC Development and Real-Time Tests

James D. Doyle (NRL/Monterey), R. Hodur (SAIC), S. Chen, E. Hendricks, T. Holt, H. Jin, Y. Jin, J. Moskaitis, M. Peng, A. Reinecke, K. Sashegyi, J. Schmidt, and S. Wang (NRL/Monterey)

NASA's Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3): Results from The 2012 Deployment and Plans for 2013

Scott A. Braun and Paul A. Newman (NASA/GSFC)

Improving the Assimilation of Multiple and Integrated High-Resolution Satellite Datasets in Mesoscale Models Of Tropical Cyclones

Chris Velden (CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin) and Sharan Majumdar (RSMAS/Univ. of Miami)

The Basin-Scale HWRF: Looking Beyond the 10-M Wind Speed for Improved Storm Predictions

Sundararaman G.Gopalakrishnan (AOML/HRD) , Vijay Tallapragada (NCEP/EMC), Xuejin Zhang (CIMAS), Frank Marks, Jr., and Robert Atlas (AOML/HRD)


Session 3b: Earth System Predication Capability (ESPC)/Next-Generation Suite of Models: Supporting Talks

Session Leader

Dr. Alexander E. (Sandy) MacDonald (OAR/ERSL)

Earth System Prediction Capability Interagency Project

Dan Eleuterio (ONR) and Jessie C.Carman (NOAA/OAR)

Next Generation Operational Global Model Development at NCEP

Bill Lapenta and John Derber (NWS/NCEP)

Next-Generation Global Weather Prediction Research at ERSL

Stan Benjamin and Jin Luen Lee (NOAA/ERSL)

Global Modeling at GFDL

Shian-Jiann Lin ( NOAA/GFDL)

Next-Generation Global Weather Prediction Research in the U.S. Navy

James D. Doyle (NRL/Monterey), Frank Giraldo (NPS) and Sasa Gabersek (NRL/Monterey)

Next-Generation Global Weather Prediction Research at NASA GMAO

Bill Putman and Michele Rienecker (NASA)


Session 3c: NSF Program Initiatives : Supporting Talks

Session Leader

Dr. Michael C. Morgan (NSF)

Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change Using Ensembles

Gregory J. Hakim (University of Washington)

The Relative Contribution of Atmospheric and Oceanic Uncertainty in TC Intensity Forecasts

Ryan Torn (University at Albany-SUNY), Chris Davis and Chris Snyder (NCAR)

Probabilistic Verification of Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclogenesis

Sharan Majumdar (RSMAS/University of Miami) and Ryan Torn (University at Albany, SUNY)

The Impact of Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation on the Predictability of Landfalling Hurricanes

Zhaoxia Pu and Hailing Zhang (University of Utah)

Data-enabled Science: Challenges and Opportunities

Mohan Ramamurthy (UCAR/Unidata)


Session4: The 2012 Tropical Cyclone Season in Review

Session Leader


53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron 2012 Hurricane Season Reconnaissance Summary

Lt Col Jonathan Talbot (USAFR/53 WRS)

NOAA Aircraft Operations Center (AOC) 2012 Seasonal Summary and Future Plans

Jim McFadden (NOAA/AOC)

Targeted Observations for Improving Numerical Weather Prediction: Review and Recommendations

Sharan Majumdar (RSMAS/University of Miami)

Review of the 2012 Central Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season and Preliminary Verification

Tom Evans (NWS/CPHC)

An Overview of Joint Typhoon Warning Center Tropical Cyclone Forecast Improvement Focus

Brian R. Strahl (JTWC)



Joint Typhoon Warning Center 2012 Year in Review

Not presented at the IHC but added here for your reference.


Session 5a: Joint Hurricane Testbed Project Updates, Part 1

Session Leaders

Vijay Tallapragada (NCEP/EMC) and John Cortinas (NOAA/OAR)

An Update on The Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT)

Jiann-Gwo Jiing, Chris Landsea, and Shirley Murillo (JHT)

Improved SFMR Surface Wind Measurements in Intense Rain Conditions

Eric Uhlhorn (NOAA/OAR/AOML) and Brad Klotz (CIMAS/Univ. of Miami)

Improved Automation and Performance of VORTRAC Intensity Guidance

Wen-Chau Lee (NCAR), Michael Bell (Univ. of Hawaii), and Paul Harasti, (NRL Monterey)

Development of a Real-Time Automated Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Analysis: A Year-2 Joint Hurricane Testbed Project Update

John A. Knaff (NESDIS), Renate Brummer (CIRA/CSU), Mark DeMaria (NESDIS), and Chris Landsea, Michael Brennan, Robbie Berg, and Jessica Schauer (NHC)


Session 5b: Joint Hurricane Testbed Project Updates, Part 2

Session Leaders

Vijay Tallapragada (NCEP/EMC) and John Cortinas (NOAA/OAR)

Development of a Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Genesis Prediction Scheme

Jason Dunion (UM/CIMAS, AOML), John Kaplan (NOAA/OAR/AOML), Andrea Schumacher (CSU/CIRA), Joshua Cossuth (FSU/COAPS), and Mark DeMaria (NESDIS)

Upgrades to the Operational GFDL/GFDN Hurricane Model Planned for 2013

Morris A. Bender, Timothy Marchok (NOAA/ GFDL), Biju Thomas and Isaac Ginis (University of Rhode Island) and Robert Tuleya (CCPO/Old Dominion University)

Advancing HWRF and GFDL/GFDN Prediction Systems through New and Enhanced Physics of the Air-Sea-Wave Coupling Planned for 2013

Isaac Ginis, Richard Yablonsky, Biju Thomas (University of Rhode Island), Vijay Tallapragada, Hendrik Tolman (NCEP), and Morris Bender (GFDL)

Validation of HWRF Forecasts with Satellite Observations

Tomislava Vukicevic (NOAA/OAR/AOML) and Tom Greenwald (Univ. of Wisconsin/CIMSS )

Improvement to the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index:: A Year-2 JHT Project Update

John Kaplan (NOAA/AOML), Christopher M. Rozoff (CIMSS), Charles R. Sampson (NRL), Jim Kossin (NCDC), Chris Velden (CIMSS), and Mark DeMaria (NESDIS)

Improvements in Statistical Tropical Cyclone Forecast Models: A Year 2 Joint Hurricane Testbed Project Update

Mark DeMaria (NOAA/NESDIS), Andrea Schumacher (CIRA/CSU), John A. Knaff (NOAA/ NESDIS), and Renate Brummer (CIRA/CSU)

Enhancement of SHIPS-RI Index using Satellite 37 GHz Microwave Ring Pattern

Haiyan Jiang (Florida Intl Univ.), Margie Kieper and Tie Yuan (FIU), Edward J. Zipser (Univ. of Utah), and John Kaplan (HRD)

A New Secondary Eyewall Formation Index; Transition to Operations and Quantification of Associated Hurricane Intensity and Structure Changes: A Joint Hurricane Testbed Project)

Jim Kossin (NOAA/NCDC) and Matt Sitkowski, Will Lewis, and Chris Rozoff (CIMSS)


Session 6: Tropical Cyclone Model Development and Technology Transfer

Session Leaders

Dave McCarren (Navy/CNMOC) and Michael Farrar (NWS/OST)

Further Advancements to the NCEP Operational HWRF Modeling System for 2013 and Beyond

Vijay Tallapragada (NCEP/EMC)

Application and Improvements to COAMPS-TC

Richard M. Hodur (SAIC/Innovative Employee Solutions), J. Doyle, E. Hendricks, Y. Jin, J. Moskaitis, K. Sashegyi, and J. Schmidt (NRL/ Monterey)

Evaluation of Experimental Models for Tropical Cyclone Forecasting in Support of the NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP)

Barbara G. Brown, Louisa Nance, Paul A. Kucera, and Christopher L. Williams (NCAR)

Improved Telescopic Nesting and its Effects on Hurricane Forecasting

Samuel Trahan (I.M. Systems Group/NCEP), Young Kwon (EMC/IMSG), Qingfu Liu (EMC) Xuejin Zhang (UM/CIMAS), Hui-Ya Chuang (EMC), Dave Zelinsky (NHC/SRG), Greg Thompson (NCAR), Shaowu Bao (ESRL) Ligia Bernardet (ESRL), Vijay Tallapragada (EMC), Brad Ferrier (EMC/IMSG)

Potential Upgrades for the Radiation and Boundary Layer Physics in the Operational HWRF Model

Young Kwon (EMC/IMSG), Chanh Kieu , Weiguo Wang , Sam Trahan, Qingfu Liu, Zhan Zhang, Vijay Tallapragada (EMC) and Jun Zhang (HRD)

Evaluation of the Ocean Response in HWRF: How Changes in the Atmosphere-Ocean Fluxes Affect Forecast Skill

Ligia Bernardet (NOAA/ESRL), Eric Uhlhorn (HRD), Shaowu Bao (NOAA/ESRL), Joe Cione (HRD)

Further Development of a Statistical Ensemble for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction

Kate D. Musgrave (CIRA/CSU), Mark DeMaria (NESDIS), Brian D. McNoldy (Univ. of Miami), Yi Jin (NRL Monterey), and Michael Fiorino (ESRL)

Extended-range (5-30 day) Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones with the ECMWF Ensemble: Atlantic during HS3 Field Experiment

Russell L. Elsberry, Hsiao-Chung Tsai, Mary S. Jordan (Naval Postgraduate School) and Fredric Vitart (ECMWF, Shinfield Park, England)


Conference Banquet


Hagemeyer Award Presentation




Mr. Jeff Hawkins--2012
Dr. Peter G. Black -- 2011

Dr. Jim Goerss --2010

Dr. Mark DeMaria --2009

Mr. Robert Dumont--2008

Mr. Charles J. “Charlie” Neumann--2007

Dr. Joanne Simpson--2006

Dr. Frank D. Marks, Jr.--2005

Mr. Max Mayfield--2004

Mr. Chris Velden--2003

Prof. Russell Elsberry--2002 


Session 7: Observations and Observing Strategies for Tropical Cyclones and their Environment

Session Leaders

Scott Braun (NASA/GSFC) and Svetla Hristova-Veleva (NASA/JPL)

The 2012 Satellite Proving Ground at the National Hurricane Center (large file 100+MBs)

Michael Folmer (UM/CICS) and Jack Beven, Michael Brennan, Hugh Cobb, Mark DeMaria, John Knaff, Christopher Velden, Jason Dunion, Gary Jedlovec, Kevin Fuell

Computing Deep-Tropospheric Vertical Wind Shear Analyses for TC Applications: Does the Methodology Matter?

Christopher S. Velden and John Sears (University of Wisconsin-Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS)

Outflow Layer Structure in Hurricanes Leslie And Nadine Revealed by Dropsondes Deployed from NASA Global Hawk UAV Aircraft during the 2012 Hurricane and Severe Storms Sentinel (HS3) Campaign: A New TC Observational Strategy

Peter G. Black (SAIC/NRL Monterey), Jon Moskaitis, James Doyle, Chris Velden, and Scott Braun

HIWRAP Global Hawk Status and Future Plans

Gerald. Heymsfield (NASA/GSFC) and S. Guimond (NASA ORAU), L. Li and M. Mclinden (NASA GSFC), J. Carswell (Remote Sensing Solutions), and L. Tian (UMBC GEST)

Retrievals of Wind and Rain Rate from Combined Measurements of Up-Looking and Down-Looking SFMR(s)

Mark Goodberlet and Ivan PopStefanija (ProSensing)

Implementation of Upper-Ocean Temperature Measurements on Operational Hurricane Reconnaissance: An Update on the AXBT Demonstration Project

Elizabeth R. Sanabia and Bradford S. Barrett (USNA), Peter Black (SAIC/NRL Monterey), Sue Chen and James Cummings (NRL Monterey)

Observations of Upwelling Processes during Tropical Storm Isaac

Benjamin Jaime, Lynn K. Shay, Jodi Brewster, Ryan Schuster (RSMAS/Univ. of Miami) and Mark Powell (AOML/HRD)

Progressing toward a Geostationary Microwave Sounder Mission

Bjorn Lambrigtsen (NASA/JPL)


Session 8: Improvements in Tropical Cyclone Forecast and Warning Products and Services

Session Leaders

Tim McClung (NWS/OST) and Jim Goerss (NRL/Monterey)

COASTAL Act Requirements for Tropical Cyclone Post-Storm Assessments and Response by NOAA and Interagency Partners

Stephen Lord (NWS), Michael Bilder (NWS), Mark Powell (OAR/AOML), Jesse Feyen (NOS), Andre Westhuysen (NWS/EMC), and Tim Owen (NESDIS/NCDC)

Using USACE-ERDC's Coastal Storm Modeling System in Support of Hurricane Sandy Operations

Chris Massey (USACE-ERDC-CHL)

USGS Monitoring of Storm-Tide for Hurricanes Isaac and Sandy

Robert R. Mason, Benton D. McGee, and Brian E. McCallum (USGS)

Improvements to the CO-OPS Storm QuickLook Product for Real-Time Storm Surge Monitoring for the 2014 Hurricane Season

Paul Fanelli (NOAA/NOS/Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services)

Use of a Modified SHIPS Algorithm for Hurricane Intensity Forecasts

T.N. Krishnamurti and Amit Bhardwaj (Florida State University)

Impact of New Predictors on Corrected Consensus TC Track Forecast Error

James S. Goerss (Innovative Employee Solutions/NRL/Monterey)

Are Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts Improving?

J. R. Moskaitis (NRL/ Monterey)

CLIQR: A Climatological Analog Matcher to Ongoing Tropical Cyclones

David Roth (NWS/NCEP/HPC)




Collaborative Decision Making: Connecting Agencies (Federal & State) and the Private Sector for Improved Situational Awareness, Coordination, and Response to Save Lives and Property

Dave Jones, Founder, President & CEO, StormCenter Communications, Inc.



Session 9: Social Science Applications to the Tropical Cyclone Forecast and Warning Notification Problem

Session Leaders

Ms. Jennifer Moore Sprague (NWS) and Ms.Tracy Rouleau (NWS)

Supporting the Integration of Physical and Social Science as it relates to the NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP)

Jennifer Moore Sprague (NWS), B. Morrow, J.K. Lazo, J. Rhome, R. Berg, L. Nadeau, and E. Fago

Utilizing Input from Emergency Managers, the Media, the Public and Local NWS Meteorologists to Better Communicate Surge and Other Storm Hazards

Betty Hearn Morrow ( SocResearch, Miami, FL), J. K. Lazo, J. Rhome, R. Berg, L. Nadeau, and E. Fago

Communication of Hurricane Storm Surge Threat: A Mixed-Method Analysis

Kathleen Sherman-Morris (Mississippi State University)

Evaluation of the NC-CERA Storm Surge and Wave Visualization Tool by Emergency Managers

Jessica L. Losego (Institute for the Environment, University of North Carolina)


Final Plenary Session Coordinator: Dr. Paul D. Try (OFCM/STC)

Session Moderator Colonel John Egentowich Acting Air Force Director of Weather

WG/HWSOR: Action Item Review

Dr. Edward Rappaport (NCEP/NHC) Chairperson, WG/HWSOR

Conference Wrap-Up

- Dr. Michael C. Morgan, NSF

- Dr. Alexander E. (Sandy) MacDonald, NOAA/ESRL

- Dr. Ronald Ferek, ONR

- Dr. Frank Marks, Jr., NOAA/HRD

Final Wrap-up

Mr. Samuel P. Williamson Federal Coordinator for Meteorology






A Convective Band Within the Inner Core of Hurricane Isaac at Landfall: Is This An Inner Eyewall or Just a Transient Banding Feature?

Keith G. Blackwell (University of South Alabama)


A Highly Configurable Vortex Initialization Method for Tropical Cyclones

Brian McNoldy, David Nolan, and Sharan Majumdar (RSMAS/University of Miami) Eric Rappin (Western Kentucky Univ.)


Quantifying Predictability of Environmental Parameters associated with Tropical Cyclogenesis)

William Komaromi, Jonathan Labriola, and Sharan Majumdar (RSMAS/University of Miami)


Ensemble Kalman Assimilation of Global-Hawk-based Data from Tropical Cyclones

Jason Sippel (NASA/GSFC)

P05 poster

Azimuthal Variation in the Eyewall's Surface-Wind Speed May Increase Maximum Potential Intensity

Owen Kelley (NASA/GSFC) and Daniel Meléndez (NWS/OST)


Tropical Cyclone Inner-Core Structure from Downward-Pointing, Conically-Scanning Airborne Doppler Radar: IWRAP and HIWRAP

Stephen Guimond (Univ. of Maryland/ESSIC and NASA/GSFC), Lin Tian (Morgan State Univ. and NASA/GSFC), Gerald Heymsfield (NASA/GSFC), and Stephen Frasier (Univ. of Massachusetts)


Aerosols-Cloud-Microphysics Interactions in Tropical Cyclones using Aircraft Observations and the WRF-ARW Model

Yaítza Luna-Cruz (Howard University), Andrew J. Heymsfield, Gregory Thompson , Gregory Jenkins, Trude Eidhammer, and Aaron Bansemer


The Impact of Ocean Heat Content Observations Collected during Operational Weather Reconnaissance Flights on SHIPS Intensity Forecasts in Hurricanes Ernesto and Isaac (2012)

Lauren McCann, Mary Cox, and Elizabeth Sanabia (USNA)


Development of a new Tropical Cyclone Verification Toolkit (MET-TC)

Kathryn Newman, John Halley Gotway, Tressa Fowler, Paul Kucera, Barbara Brown, and Louisa Nance (NCAR)


A Developmental Framework for Improving Hurricane Model Physical Parameterizations Using Aircraft Observations

Jun Zhang (CIMAS/HRD), Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan (HRD), Frank Marks (HRD), Robert Rogers (HRD), and Vijay Tallapragada (EMC)


The 48-hour NESDIS Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Product

Andrea B. Schumacher (CIRA/CSU) and Mark DeMaria (NESDIS/StAR)


The JPL Tropical Cyclone Information System – A Tool for Hurricane Research, Model Eval¬uation and Satellite Algorithm Development: Current State and Ongoing Development

Svetla. Hristova-Veleva, Z. Haddad, B. Knosp, B. Lambrigtsen, P. P. Li, N. Niamsuwan, W. L. Poulsen, T.P. Shen, S. Tanelli, F. J. Turk, Q. A. Vu (JPL )


Community Support and Testing of the Hurricane WRF Model at the Developmental Testbed Center

Shaowu Bao, Ligia Bernardet, andTimothy Brown (ESRL/CIRES) and Mrinal Biswas, Donald Stark, and Laurie Carson (NCAR)


A Robust Observation Operator and Associated Background Covariances to Assimilate Rain Microwave Radiance into Cloud-Permitting Models

Ziad S. Haddad[1,2], Jeffrey Steward[2], Tomislava Vukicevic[3], Svetla Hristova‐VelevaU[1,2] ([1]UCLA/JIFRESSE, [2]NASA/JPL, & [3]NOAA/AOML)




Modular Modeling of Tropical-Cyclone Structure: Support of Global Hawk Missions

Frank Fendell Northrop Grumman Aerospace Systems